July 24, 2012
ASEAN in Phnom Penh: No Cause for Alarm, says Analyst Bunn Nagara
by Bunn Negara (07-22-12) @www.thestar.com.my
ASEAN (born in 1967) is younger than the member nations, so teething problems as it continues to mature have been no cause for alarm.
ASEAN'S set pieces following the meetings have become so predictable as to provoke panic when the blip in the set routine appears unexpectedly. That happened with the anticipated corner communique following the ministerial assembly in Phnom Penh the week ago (July 14).
This was the initial time the communique was not issued, after feud over the calm in in in between the Philippines and host Cambodia upon Manila's territorial squabble with Beijing. That was enough to set tongues wagging, pens wriggling as good as keyboards clacking about the presumed "turning point" in ASEAN as good as even conjecture about the imminent demise.
ASEAN proceedings have traditionally been weighed down by diplomatic gobbledygook usually given everyone expects such statements to be issued. What later happens in the control of member states, however removed from the spirit as good as calm of the communiques, afterwards becomes utterly irrelevant.
Yet the substance of statements released should be some-more critical than the actuality of arising usually any statement. After all, ASEAN is ostensible to be some-more about domestic process than mere diplomatic procedure.
Therefore, not arising the common matter after this month's pow wow in in between foreign ministers is improved than arising the incomprehensible matter usually for the sake of arising something. It makes no sense to produce the! matter in the deficiency of the corner agreement about what it would say.
As it happened, not arising the corner communique amounts to an indirect matter upon the
different positions taken by the little members, in this box the hotly disputed claims upon island domain in in in between the Philippines (and to the little extent Vietnam) as good as China.
Ironically, the Phnom Penh assembly was ostensible to consolidate efforts during establishing an ASEAN village by 2015, as good as to reaffirm blossoming family in in in between ASEAN as good as China.
It might have failed during delivering either, though simply deviating from the norm by not perpetuating the scripted, choreographed as good as rehearsed law in any case of resources is not the disaster of ASEAN. Nonetheless, the apparent detour from the objectives of this year's ministerial assembly was enough to turn warn in to startle for many.
Traditionally criticised for observant little as good as you do even reduction with tedious predictability, ASEAN is suddenly seen as risking the unprecedented. Its critics should right away have up their thoughts about the nature of their criticisms, given they have been commencement to contradict themselves.
The alternative irony concerns the ASEAN style itself. The informal organisation has prolonged been assessed reduction by what it says in communiques than what it leaves unsaid, as good as accepted reduction by what it does than what it to the single side skirts doing.
Thus starting by the record, the decision not to emanate the communique might be deemed doubly as good as traditionally ASEAN. Yet it was taken to be untypical of ASEAN. ! 
Cynics presaging doom-and-gloom scenarios for ASEAN dont think about which the watchword has always been "resilience", as supported by the near-half-century record. ASEAN is done of sterner stuff, to which the experience testifies.
But ASEAN is additionally not defence to the pitfalls of complacency. Failure to do what is needed right away can escalate current hurdles as good as lead to some-more problems in the future.
For what it is worth, Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono swiftly dispatched Foreign Minister Dr Marty Natalegawa to 4 ASEAN capitals, together with Kuala Lumpur, to try to cobble together the little kind of the belated corner communique.
That might be possible though unlikely, given Foreign Ministers who refused to be accommodating while together during an central assembly would be even reduction inclined to concede when during the back of home. Even if such the matter materialises, it would usually be "in absentia" of the fabricated ministers, right away dispersed, as good as not the matter "posthumous" of ASEAN.
Meanwhile, news as good as explanation about the lack of the communique have overshadowed the issues during the back of it. And it is not usually the deficiency of the communique which can be seen as untypical of ASEAN.
Manila as good as Hanoi had come in to the assembly room after the new diplomatic squabble with China over competing territorial claims. Despite the ministerial assembly covering assorted alternative matters, the Philippines as good as Vietnam insisted which their problems with China be enclosed in the calm of the corner communique.
Cambodia, as host, refused as it saw this as uncivilised as good as inappropriate. Only half of the 10 ASEAN members have disputes over island domain with China, with the dispute in subject over Scarborough Shoal/Huangyan Island involving usually the single ASEAN country, the Philippines.
Philippine Foreign Minister Albert del Rosario afterwards openly indicted his Cambodian counterpart Hor Namhong of "consistently fortifying China's interest." Point series two in being untypically ASEAN.
The sick will created extends over the scope of any ASEAN conference. Its import as good as impact have already widespread over the couple of countries involved. No nation can claim victory or savour any sense of compensation from these developments, given they work to the detriment of all. There is additionally the additional risk of the little countries misreading the situation to even worse effect.
China had the cake in the face when it began the conference, as an ASEAN dialogue partner, by celebrating the new priority of taking family with ASEAN to larger heights. If it is looking any consolation from the widely separated ASEAN, it will find itself gravely mistaken.
The Philippines is additionally finding which it has fewer "allies" in this imbroglio than it would have
liked. Thailand had already warned it would not let shared differences with China upset informal ties with Beijing, while the congress of retired diplomats in Indonesia criticised the Philippines for being "blunt" as good as "very un-ASEAN."
The alternative ASEAN countries have been not just during the back of Manila, as good as further the little Filipino commentators. Even Vietnam, despit! e the in ter-state disputes with China, has always had quieter, positive inter-party ties as associate comrade nations.
In contrast, the Philippines has usually the treaty with the US. That can have matters worse by emboldening Manila in rash actions, or initiating vital power conflict in the region.
Now President Benigno Aquino III has upheld the doing of the emanate from del Rosario to Ambassador Sonia Brady in Beijing to hoop some-more diplomatically. A sense of realism might nonetheless dawn after all.
In the meantime, changes in the region embody the little which subject aged ideological allegiances. Diplomats as good as policymakers need to be supportive to such developments to reply accordingly.
Not usually does Vietnam have serious differences with China, Myanmar might additionally begin to do so upon apart shared matters. At the same time, Taiwan increasingly feels during the single with China over claims upon domain disputed by alternative countries, such as the a single with the Philippines.
Beyond all the opposing claims, the little realities remain.ASEAN is usually 45 years aged as the informal organisation in the tellurian village of nations, so some-more differences in in in between members have been likely to crop up in future. These should not be the problem as prolonged as they have been manageable.
Disputes have been additionally most appropriate settled, or can usually be settled, by negotiations or arbitration. Souring the atmosphere by creation diplomacy formidable usually makes things worse for everyone.
With China, it has been said which upping the ante usually strengthens the palm of hardliners in Beijing. Most ASEAN countries have been wise enough to steer clear of which approach, however most of the pour out it might give the little politicians playing to the art studio during home.
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