UPCOMING MALAYSIAN GENERAL ELECTION
High stakes for Najib, Anwar
When will Prime Minister Najib Razak call the ubiquitous election? That theme has been the theme of most feverish conjecture in Malaysia of late. Calendar guessing games aside, there have been certain pass issues as well as trends which will change the choosing during your convenience it is called. In the first of the five-part series, The Straits Times' Malaysia business looks during the tall stakes involved
By Carolyn Hong(06-11-12)@The Straits Times, Singapore
A change of supervision has never been the genuine probability in any Malaysian choosing in the past 50 years, though the Opposition thinks which this is right away in sight.
Non-partisan observers will not go so far, though after the 2008 domestic tsunami which arrived unnoticed, nothing can be ruled out.
What additionally gives people postponement is which Malaysia's 13th ubiquitous choosing will take place in the highly charged as well as unpredictable domestic environment. The stakes have been very tall for Prime Minister Najib Razak as well as antithesis personality Anwar Ibrahim, as well as the coalitions they lead.
The domestic careers of both Datuk Seri Najib as well as Datuk Seri Anwar will be upon the line as anything reduction than the strong display for their parties in the choosing will open up inner rifts which could move about an early retirement for their leaders.
The ubiquitous choosing is additionally the test of the cohesiveness of both the statute Barisan Nasional (BN) confederation as well as the rival, the antithesis Pakatan Rakyat (PR) alliance.
Since the final polls in 200! 8, both coalitions have during times struggled to keep their partial of parts together as well as upon the same page upon issues of competition as well as sacrament which could potentially lift them apart.
The BN faced the a single some-more highlight of carrying suffered the drubbing in the 2008 polls, losing in the process the long-held two- thirds infancy in Parliament. Soon after the debacle, the Sabah Progressive Party pulled out of the BN.
While the BN is expected to come in the subsequent ubiquitous choosing with the present lot of thirteen partial of parties, rumours continue to circulate about the faithfulness of the little of the smaller parties.
The BN cannot means to remove any some-more components, as this will leave it in the unsafe in front of in the parsimonious competition where each parliamentary chair counts.
For Mr Najib, there have been specific personal challenges as well.'It will be the very important ubiquitous election, generally for the Prime Minister, who took leadership of the nation during the time of predicament in his party,' pronounced domestic analyst P. Sivamurugan of University Sains Malaysia.
Mr Najib took over the reins of supervision as well as the leadership of the UMNO statute celebration in Apr 2009 from Tun Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, who stepped down after he was during large blamed by celebration members for the shocking choosing formula the year before.
Najib's challenges
SIGNIFICANTLY, Mr Najib did not call snap polls shortly after the handover; the arriving ubiquitous choosing to illustrate presents him with dual outrageous related challenges: To claw back the mislaid seats as well as to secure his own mandate with an softened performance.
Put in specific terms, this would meant heading the BN in the goal to recover the two-thirds infancy or 148 out of the sum 222 seats in Parliament. In 2008, it won usually 140 seats. It additionally mislaid five states Penang, Kedah, Perak, S! elangor as well as Kelantan though wrested back Perak with the assistance of 3 defectors the year later.
The BN right away has 137 parliamentary seats, after the array of defections as well as by-elections.
Analysts contend Mr Najib will be expected by his celebration to do significantly improved than his predecessor by winning some-more than 140 seats, if not the two-thirds majority, as well as during least the single state back, preferably the wealthy the single of Selangor.
Given the stakes for him as well as the ascending battle, it is not startling which Mr Najib has pushed tough to indurate his await bottom as well as win over fence-sitters. Sweeteners have enclosed approach money handouts to the poor as well as the array of domestic as well as mercantile reforms.
Mr Anwar as well as his people have not been idle either. The Opposition confederation has unveiled the own alternative mercantile plans, as well as Mr Anwar has tirelessly worked the belligerent through almost nightly rallies to convince electorate to give the PR their vote.
Technically, Mr Najib can reason off job an choosing until subsequent April, though pundits believe he is expected to call it this year whilst the flushed glow from the convincing mercantile performance still holds.
Speculation went in to overdrive recently when the final couple of months were packed with crowd-pleasing gestures similar to money handouts as well as domestic reforms. But how imminent the choosing will be will additionally have to take in to account the fallout from April's aroused as well as pell-mell BERSIH rally.
There is far-reaching consensus which it will not be easy for the BN to recover the dominant in front of since the significant proportion of the constituencies have been mixed seats which have been not heavily dominated by any sold race.
Of the BN's 140 seats, 56 were won with the thin infancy of under 10 per cent, as well as of the PR's 83 seats, 54 were won with the similarly parsim! onious m ajority. Of these extrinsic seats, around two-thirds have been multi-ethnic seats.
Credibility problems
WHAT this equates to is which any confederation which wants to oversee has to secure the middle belligerent votes, pronounced antithesis Democratic Action Party strategist Liew Chin Tong, additionally an MP in Opposition-held Penang.
It has to be means to win await opposite all communities as well as opposite all regions in the country, as well as it can do so usually by holding centrist positions as well as assuage policies.
"I still reason the perspective which no confederation which wants to oversee can means to have the await of just the single community or the single region"' he said.
The BN will to illustrate have to widespread the await bottom over the Malays, as well as the PR over the civic areas. Neither has truly succeeded, leaving both in the in front of which creates it tough to win decisively.
The PR has tried various measures from nightly ceramahs (rallies) in farming areas to organising outreach campaigns between different target groups similar to the East Malaysian natives as well as settlers of the state-run camp FELDA who have been traditionally constant to BN. But the success has been patchy.
The PR's credibility has additionally taken the bashing from inner bickering over the doing of the delicate emanate of the Islamic state. More seriously, it has to deal with public disillusionment over defections, quite those from Parti Keadilan Rakyat.
The defections of twelve MPs as well as state assemblymen from the ranks in the final couple of years had incited the antithesis in to the target for ridicule, as well as left doubts in voters' minds as to either it deserves the second chance.
These have been issues which civic voters, generally the Chinese, might be willing to overlook since of dislike for the BN though it might be the harder sell to the farming non-Chinese voter who ! tends to be some-more conservative.
The BN's complaint is of an wholly different nature: Voters remain puzzled about the frankness in reforms. It does not assistance which it has embarked upon the two-pronged plan which comes opposite as inconsistent. On the a single hand, it sings an thorough tune though upon the other, UMNO, the heading component, creates no skeleton about being the stridently race-based party.
Mr Najib stands for being inclusive. Since he launched his 1Malaysia togetherness slogan, he has done many accessible overtures to the minority communities, as well as has gone as distant as revamping mercantile policies deemed as favouring the Malays. Yet, he has neglected to quell newspapers as well as organisations linked to his UMNO celebration from aggressive the Chinese as well as Christian communities as threats to Malay- Muslim supremacy.
"Najib is banking upon his personal leadership to win votes, as well as it does appear evident which people do similar to the 1Malaysia concept, either it's applicable or not," pronounced Professor Sivamurugan.
At the moment, both the BN as well as PR appear to have cemented their holds between members of their normal await base, as well as the by-elections from 2008 to final year indicate which this division in to rival camps is hardening.
The BN's strength lies in the farming areas as well as between civil servants, armed forces as well as police officers. The Malay opinion has swung back to the BN after the 5 per cent pitch to the antithesis in 2008. Indian await for the BN additionally seems to have returned.
The PR has hold upon to the Chinese await as well as the little of the civic vote.But there is an element of uncertainty from the dual million code brand new electorate added to the electoral rolls since 2008. Most of them will be electorate aged below 35. Will their allegiances follow older electorate from their particular communities? Or will they be reduction code constant as well as change according t! o resour ces as well as issues of the day? The answers to which could be vicious to how battles have been decided, generally in extrinsic wards.
Careers as well as coalitions
Mr Najib's domestic destiny rests heavily upon how distant the electoral result improves the BN's display in 2008. After all, he came to power with the guarantee which he would revive the BN to the dominant position.
Many have speculated which his emissary Muhyiddin Yassin, who is noticeably some-more pro-Malay, would launch the power plea if Mr Najib falters.
Mr Anwar, 66, is in an similarly unsafe position, as he might not get an additional shot during the premiership, with the 14th ubiquitous choosing due usually during the finish of this decade.
While he is the popular domestic leader, steady surveys have shown which electorate have been not as penetrating upon him being Prime Minister. This is often since of his checkered record when he was an UMNO superstar as well as Deputy Prime Minister until he was sacked in 1998.
But it is not just about the leaders. Even both their coalitions' ability to reason together will rely upon the electoral outcome. A disastrous result might convince confederation members which their survival is improved served by leaving the alliance.
Should the PR fail to have substantial inroads, the restive elements in Parti Islam SeMalaysia might feel which the celebration had compromised prolonged sufficient upon the Islamic state agenda, as well as embankment the coalition.
Similarly, should the BN be seen to falter, the Chinese components might feel the need to leave the alliance for their own survival. And East Malaysian parties, which have the story of jumping ship, might confirm to do so again.
So, what is during interest in the subsequent ubiquitous choosing could be the complete domestic landscape in Malaysia.
For over 50 years, the BN had been resolutely in control, despite the most appropriate effor! ts of va rious antithesis parties. A dent was done in the 2008 elections. What happens in the entrance the single could have critical repercussions over the seats totted up upon choosing day.
carolynh@sph.com.sg
Faces to watch
MUKHRIZ MAHATHIR, 47
THE youngest son of former prime apportion Mahathir Mohamad done his domestic debut in 2008, winning the parliamentary chair of Jerlun in Kedah. A year later, he was done the Deputy Minister during the Ministry of International Trade as well as Industry.
But the talk is which the statesman will be changed back to the state seat, with an eye upon getting the powerful Menteri Besar post if Barisan Nasional (BN) wrests Kedah back from antithesis alliance Pakatan Rakyat (PR). The Mahathir name carries weight in Kedah, which is the former Premier's home state.But there is pronounced to be resistance from the little UMNO factions in the state.
LIM KIT SIANG, 71
WILL he or won't he?
Rumours have been swirling which the Democratic Action Party (DAP) supremo will lead the heavyweight squad consisting of himself, Mr Tony Pua as well as Ms. Fong Po Kuan to take upon the MCA in the bastion of Johor.
The state is the MCA's solitary stronghold, on condition which the celebration with about half of the fifteen MPs. Slugging it out with the MCA in the southern state where it has the decent track record upon the belligerent would be the hig! h-stakes fool around for the DAP, the PR member.
P. UTHAYAKUMAR, 50
FIVE years ago, he was the favourite in the Indian community as the personality of the Hindu Rights Action Force, whose large protest in the streets of Kuala Lumpur in 2007 was seen as the major factor in BN's drubbing during the polls the following year.
Government efforts to win over the Indian community since have undercut the little of the change hold by Mr Uthayakumar as well as his Human Rights Party.
But he stays the recognizable face, as well as has so distant refused to align himself or his celebration with either BN or PR.In tighten fights during wards with large numbers of Indian voters, his actions could establish the result of these races.
ONG TEE KEAT, 55
THE former Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA) President rose to the party's top post after the 2008 elections, as well as championed the code brand new commencement for the party.
As Transport Minister, he quickly won plaudits from the public for his stubborn pursuit in uncovering monetary irregularities in the Port Klang Free Zone scandal. But his domestic destiny was thrown in to doubt after he mislaid to his celebration emissary Chua Soi Lek in the leadership scuffle in 2010.
Although the straight-talking though sometimes abrasive Mr Ong is seen as the single of the MCA's most winnable candidates, there have been rumours which he will be dropped in the subsequent elections, which could coax him to join the opposition.
KHAIRY JAMALUDDIN, 36
AMBITIOUS as well as wily. Urbane as well as intelligent. The son-in-law of former Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi has been seen in both lights, depending upon either the single is the detractor or supporter.
But the single thing is for sure. KJ, as he is during large known, has turn the convincing -and rare voice for moderation as well as the middle belligerent in UMNO in the final couple of years. With the large childish choosing by casting votes confederation in fool around in the arriving ubiquitous election, the UMNO Youth arch will be tasked with the crucial job of winning over undecided immature voters.
RAFIZI RAMLI, 34
THE vital senior manager for Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR), the single of the 3 antithesis parties which have up PR, done headlines in recent months for his efforts during detection monetary irregularities, in what has come to be well well known as the 'cows as well as condos' scandal.
His visit exposes of the exchange of the National Feedlot Corporation (NFC) have led to rapist charges opposite the father as well as son of Wanita UMNO arch Shahrizat Abdul Jalil.
Mr Rafizi, the British-trained chartered accountant, hold several managerial posts in state-owned Petronas prior to joining PKR in 2009. Since then, he has done his name as the single of the party?s rising stars as well as the claimant to watch in the entrance polls
HU PANG CHOW, 57
A CHRISTIAN, Mr Hu founded the Parti Islam SeMalaysia (PAS) Supporters' Club in 2004 with 100 non-Muslim members.
He actively campaigns for the regressive eremite celebration in the belief which PAS, the partial of celebration in PR, is the answer to crime in Malaysian politics.
The bar right away boasts some-more than 50,000 members, as well as Mr Hu has openly pronounced the celebration could do some-more to margin non-Muslims as possibilities under the banner. There is conjecture which he might be the claimant in the entrance election, nonetheless he personally has played it down.
ZAIRIL KHIR JOHARI, 29, as well as the DAP's alternative Malay politicians
IT WAS seen as the major coup. Four Malay politicians together with dual UMNO veterans assimilated the Chinese-based DAP, condemned by UMNO as the Chinese loyalist party. The newcomers have been expected to be fielded as candidates, as well as have been the vital partial of the DAP's expostulate to revamp the image.
They have been businessman Mohd Ariff Sabri Aziz, retirement Aspan Alias, former publisher Hata Wahari as well as Penang Institute arch senior manager Zairil Khir Johari, the son of the former UMNO minister.
How warmly they will be supposed by supporters as well as electorate will be closely watched, generally after DAP top Malay personality Tunku Abdul Aziz quit.
TEXT BY TEO CHENG WEE AND LESTER KONG
