July 17, 2012
Asia Times Online: ASEAN Foreign Ministers in Cambodia
ASEAN Foreign Ministers Meeting in Phnom Penh: Another Perspective
By Donald K Emmerson
Never in 45 years of unchanging meetings steadily followed by tasteless communiques have a unfamiliar ministers of a Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) unsuccessful to determine upon a have a difference for open expenditure summarizing their private deliberations. Not, which is, until now.
At a finish of their just-concluded gathering in Phnom Penh, a overpower was deafening. The benefaction means was their inability to strech a accord upon possibly a have a difference should discuss Scarborough Shoal, a site of a moving event which began in Apr in in in in in between China as good as a Philippines, whose governments both explain which land feature in a South China Sea. The Philippines longed for to embody such a reference. Cambodia objected. Neither gave in. The "ASEAN way" of accord failed.
The details of what went upon so not long ago behind closed doors in Phnom Penh have been still unclear. The repercussions have been not nonetheless known. But it is not too early to assume that, for China, a outcome amounts to an evident feat which could infer tenuous in a longer run.
Cambodia as good as China
The underlying means of a relapse deeply implicates Beijing as good as a 
effort to defend a explain to p! ossess e xclusive sovereign rights over scarcely a complete South China Sea. That explain is embodied in a mysterious nine-dash line upon Chinese maps which calls to thoughts a gigantic cow's tongue lapping deeply in to a nautical heart of Southeast Asia.
Whatever else a tongue might mean, it denies a overlapping rights of government asserted by Brunei, Malaysia, a Philippines, as good as Vietnam, which together with Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Myanmar, Singapore, as good as Thailand have up a membership of ASEAN.
As a 2012 chair of ASEAN, Cambodia hosted a group's Foreign Ministers in Phnom Penh, as good as would have examination out their last communique had there been one. Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen has never, to my knowledge, endorsed China's explain to a South China Sea. But no ASEAN leader is some-more sensitive than he is to China's views as good as demands. By refusing to examination a have a difference which mentions Scarborough Shoal, he acted in a manner unchanging with China's positions upon a government conflict.
In Beijing's view, ASEAN has no commercial operation trying to resolve a disputes over a South China Sea, which can usually be settled bilaterally in in in in in between China as good as any of a 4 Southeast Asian claimants, as good as usually when a time has come for which to occur. In this context, by refusing to emanate a communique, Cambodia appears to have done what China would have longed for it to do.
China is Cambodia's largest unfamiliar investor. Beijing has lavished money upon high-profile assist projects in a country, together with profitable for a Peace Palace in Phnom Penh where a ASEAN ministers met. Almost immediately prior to a begin of an ASEAN summit in Phnom Penh in Apr 2012, President Hu Jintao arrived upon a four-day visit, a initial by a Chinese carry out of state to Cambodia in 12 years. It is tough to reason which Hu's timing was coincidental.
Beijing had already thanked Cambodia for ancillary China's core interests, [1] w! hich arg uably embody China's argumentative explain to many of a South China Sea. And even if China's countenance of gratitude exaggerated Cambodia's loyalty, there is no subject which Hun Sen has tried to use his country's chairmanship of ASEAN in 2012 to keep a South China Sea off a group's agenda.
An spectator might interpretation which China has effectively hired a Cambodian government to do a bidding, together with preventing a ASEAN ministers from taking advantage of a corner have a difference upon a South China Sea. China can right away indicate to which failure as proof of a own position: "We're not against ASEAN, though if a organisation can't even determine upon difference in a communique, how can they be approaching to negotiate questions of government over a South China Sea? Leave a have a difference to us, in bilateral talks usually with a states without check concerned, when a time is eventually ripe." Or difference to which effect.
In integrity to Beijing as good as Phnom Penh, we do not nonetheless know, if we ever will, a border to which Manila might have common shortcoming for a infighting in irony rapt a Peace Palace. Manila did press for a anxiety to Scarborough Shoal in a communique [2].
Why was it so vital to discuss which incident during sea? Why couldn't a bank have been to a single side alluded to? Did Hun Sen simply remove his temper, as he has in a past, as good as scuttle a have a difference rsther than than concede upon a wording?
A some-more critical doubt is this: How unequivocally bad has a rift in Phnom Penh shop-worn ASEAN's capability to sponsor a contracting regulation ruling state function in a South China Sea?
Coding conduct
In 2002, China as good as a ASEAN states sealed a non-binding Dec! laration upon a Conduct of Parties in a South China Sea. Some of ASEAN's leaders hoped to commemorate a document's 10th anniversary this year by drafting, in in in between themselves, a contracting regulation of conduct. The devise was to finish a charge in time for a ASEAN ministers to announce a breeze during their assembly in Phnom Penh.
The great news is which a breeze regulation exists, nonetheless a contents have not been announced. It is apparently not a polished text, though it lists a points that, in ASEAN's common judgment, a last content should make. There is even reason to reason which a breeze includes provisions for a allotment of disputes. If which is true, it will greatfully analysts who doubted which ASEAN would be peaceful or able to go over a usual pieties: be nice, be helpful, as good as don't have things worse.
It is a impunity with which claimants have regularly disregarded a hopeful conditions of a 2002 request which has rendered so obligatory a need for a regulation which categorically opens a door to enforcement. One can be carefully encouraged in this context which in Phnom Penh, largely ignored by journalists focused upon a ministers' kerfuffle, ASEAN did give a breeze regulation to China to review.
The bad news is which a communique noting what a ministers had accomplished would expected have referred to their success in preparing a breeze regulation as good as described it as an critical step forward. Absent which recognition, a content could long for in limbo, without a transparent status as good as vulnerable to being dismissed as a mere instruct list. Intentionally or not, when Hun Sen cancelled a communique, he prevented ASEAN from publicly as good as prominently validating a breeze as a group's central basis for negotiation.
If China unequivocally does wish to equivocate being bound by a code, what happened in Phnom Penh evokes divide et impera with Chinese characteristics divide ASEAN as good as order a waves. In integrity to Beijing, h! owever, a single contingency note which China did not have from scratch a division inside ASEAN.
Beijing was hardly responsible for ASEAN's rejection or inability possibly to persuade 4 of a own members to concede their claims, or to stop a little of them from creation destabilizing moves upon as good as in a water. Had a 4 initial resolved a contradictions in in in between their own positions, ASEAN could have presented a a single front in a negotiations with China. [3]
Discussions in in in in in between ASEAN as good as China upon a breeze regulation have been scheduled for September. Because a breeze is an ASEAN product, those talks will be multilateral in character. If China takes part, it will have to leave a bilateralist welfare during a door. ASEAN's devise is to stick upon China in signing a last content during a successive spin of ASEAN-related summits this November.
If a talks for a little reason do not to take place in Cambodia, a summits 
certainly will. In Phnom Penh in November, as mercurial as Hun Sen is, things could again go badly. Beijing, however, will consider twice prior to it allows itself to be concerned in nonetheless an additional open annoyance of ASEAN, generally in a presence of a unfamiliar heads of state who will have gathered for a East Middle East Summit. More likely, in in in in in between right away as good as then, if China unequivocally wishes to impede a code, it will have worked tough in discussions with ASEAN possibly to postpone a completion or, unwell that, to ensure which a contents have been banal.
If this happens, ASEAN could face a Hobson's choice in November: to confess unwell to co-author a content with China, or to betray as good as hail a toothless edition. In calculating what (not) to do as good as when (not) t! o do it, China will additionally be seeking during a calendar, meaningful which upon Jan 1, 2013 Cambodia, which is not a claimant, will cede a purpose of ASEAN chair to Brunei, which is.
ASEAN's breeze is doubtful to stay hidden for long. If it does remain secret, no a single though a governments without check involved will be able to identify China as a means of any changes, together with concessions done to prove Beijing. But if a breeze is circulated in a stream form, as good as China final which changes be made, as good as they have been made, these deviations from a strange will eventually be open knowledge. ASEAN's diplomats will risk being charged with carrying given in to a dragon.
The chance of this function will depend upon a border to which Beijing has already been arcane to a drafting of a would-be regulation inside ASEAN, as good as has used such entrance to change a wording to a satisfaction. And if China did not fool around a purpose in which inner ASEAN process, a Southeast Asian with entrance to a breeze who wishes to inhibit Beijing's capability to amend it will have an inducement to trickle it.
Compared with summits, lower-level conversations have been reduction expected to capture courtesy as good as raise expectations. A sub-ministerial venue for ASEAN-plus-China discussions of a regulation already exists. In which reduction distinguished context, China might find it simpler to postpone any outcome it does not like.
If China were to stonewall a code, consigning it to permanent limbo, could ASEAN go forward as good as pointer it all by themselves? Not in an atmosphere of intramural recrimination such as right away exists. But if a passage of time heals benefaction wounds whilst during a same time eroding ASEAN's patience, which could feasible occur.
ASEAN's 1976 Treaty of Amity as good as Cooperation in Southeast Middle East offers a precedent. The group's partial of states primarily drafted as good as adopted which request by themselves, prior to invi! ting Chi na as good as alternative countries to sign. Nearly 20 governments outside Southeast Asia, together with China, have selected to do so. Beijing would, however, intent to being given a fait accompli a text, a pen, as good as a dotted line upon which to pointer generally a single meant to internationalize a South China Sea.
China could nonetheless change a mind. Beijing could decide to embrace a multilateral bid under ASEAN's aegis to breeze a regulation of carry out ruling state function in a South China Sea. China could even determine to a brawl allotment mechanism of a little sort. If in 2013, in line with expectations, a Xi-Li duo Xi Jinping as president, Li Keqiang as premier is entirely ensconced in Beijing, a system of administration could feel assured enough to spin a "frown diplomacy" [4] upside down, in to a smile.
One ought not reason one's exhale watchful for such a conversion, however. As a have a difference of realpolitik, China's leaders will still be tempted to remind ASEAN's leaders of a stark asymmetry in in in in in between them as good as their largest neighbor.
Size matters
Compare ASEAN's successive chair, Brunei Darussalam, with a People's Republic
of China. Ostensibly, in a United Nations General Assembly, they have been equals; any has a single vote. Yet Brunei's race is 0.0003 percent of China's. No wonder China prefers to negotiate with Brunei in a room with usually dual chairs, rsther than than carrying to face all 10 Southeast Asian claimants in a same room during a same time.
Although a sum race represented by those 10 negotiators would still be (slightly) reduction than half a demographic bulk of China, they would outnumber a lone Chinese diplomat 10 to one. Variations upon a logic of lack of harmony underpin China's regularly settled welfa! re for a part bilateral negotiations, as good as usually with any of a 4 Southeast Asian claimants.
But distance move a own discontents. Throwing a weight around in a South China Sea might good keep lesser states during bay, though it will endorse China's picture as a bully. If China wields a geo-economic as good as geopolitical energy as a blunt instrument "I'm big as good as you're not" it will trigger corner pushback in in in between Southeast Asians whilst earning their disrespect.
Smart energy in a networked world of high-speed linkages, flows, as good as innovations means meaningful when chance to physical majority is counter-productive. Size does matter, though how it is used matters more. By a evidence of Chinese diplomacy regarding a South China Sea, which lesson has not been entirely learned.
Earlier this year, for example, China due which an unaccepted (Track II) Eminent Persons as good as Experts Group (EPEG) be formed as good as tasked to discuss a breeze regulation of carry out as good as have appropriate recommendations. China due serve which a organisation comprise 10 individuals, 5 from China as good as a single from any of 5 ASEAN states.
In ASEAN circles, this grant appeared blatantly to illustrate an imperial mindset based upon distance alone: "Because we're big, we're entitled to half a seats upon a EPEG. Because you're small, you'll have to share a alternative half. And, by a way, 5 of your 10 members won't be sitting in a room during all." Or thoughts to which effect.
It is probable which China floated a idea of an EPEG in order to postpone a code. With an EPEG in place, Beijing could check decisions upon a content upon a drift which a advisory physique had not nonetheless completed a report. With half of a EPEG's members representing China, a report could b! e deferr ed for years.
Reportedly, in successive discussions, China has kept a 5 seats whilst similar to let ASEAN take up 10. To reduce Beijing's capability to use a advisory physique to upstage as good as prolong a credentials of a code, Southeast Asians have insisted which a EPEG should be convened usually after a traffic of a content with China has already begun. Had a communiqu been released in Phnom Penh, it might have referred to a EPEG. Without it, we can usually assume about a fate of China's proposal.
Beijing's try to carry out half a EPEG shows a toughening of China's line over time. In 2005 an ASEAN-China Eminent Persons Group was established to examination ASEAN-China relations as good as indicate improvements. That physique met a one-country-one-seat rule: 10 Southeast Asians sat during a list with a single Chinese.
If a EPEG does actually meet with China occupying a third of a fifteen seats, a 
deliberations will be some-more fair to Beijing's control, generally if splits in in in between a ASEAN states serve break their majority. As of July 2012 China appeared unwilling to accept a element of equivalence in in in in in between states which it had been peaceful to endorse seven years before.
Few Southeast Asians compensate courtesy to events upon Track II. Some of those who do will be relieved which China has during slightest backed down from a bid to disenfranchise half of ASEAN. But if a 10 + 5 regulation is retained, a moral-to-realpolitik change from 10 + 1 given 2005 will, however modestly, reduce Beijing's legitimacy in foreign-policy circles in Southeast Asia.
Already drawn out in a literature upon state function is a idea which a "resource curse" bedevils a domestic economies of countr! ies whic h have been rich in oil as good as gas though bad in governance. Could there be an "amplitude curse" which inclines a world's many populous nation to chuck a unmatched weight around? [5]
How many of China's "soft energy deficit" in a eyes of Southeast Asians is a function of a authoritarian regime? Will democratization, if it occurs, have China some-more collegial? Or will it increase a curse of distance by creation it harder for China's currently insulated elite to limit a impact of renouned as good as populist nationalism upon unfamiliar policy?
Whatever a answers to these questions, dual things have been clear: Beijing feels entitled to a South China Sea, as good as which sense of desert boundary a capability to project soft power.
Consider Beijing's ongoing characterization of a explain to a South China Sea as "indisputable." Is there no a single in a unfamiliar method who recognizes how laughable this description is? Whatever a single thinks of a nine-dash line upon China's map, it is, over a shade of a doubt, being disputed. Four ASEAN states have been disputing it, not to discuss a disapproval by others.
Manila has referred to separating those parts of a South China Sea which have been "disputed" from those which have been not. Perhaps Beijing thinks which in describing as "indisputable" a explain to many of a complete sea, it is simply safeguarding a position. But in a area of soft power, where difference matter, China's insistence upon indisputability undermines a case.
The deadlock in Phnom Penh might check a regulation of carry out for a South China Sea. But it might additionally speed a rejection of during slightest a little ASEAN states to kowtow to their giant neighbor, whilst strengthening their inducement to concur prudently with outsiders, together with a United States, for a sake of their own national as good as regional independence. In a meantime, it behooves a 4 Southeast Asian claimants to have certain which they too, being really many partial! of a pr oblem, have been partial of a solution.
Notes:
1. Hu Jintao's revisit to make firm Sino-Cambodian ties: Chinese envoy, Xinhua, ; as good as Robert Sutter as good as Chin-hao Huang, China-Southeast Middle East Relations: Hu Visits Cambodia as South China Sea Simmers, Comparative Connections, May 2012, p 2.
2. Prak Chan Thul as good as Stuart Grudgings, SE Middle East assembly in disarray over sea brawl with China, Reuters, July 13, 2012.
3. The sixth petitioner is Taiwan; a position, during slightest upon a surface, replicates China's. 4. See Emmerson, China's 'frown diplomacy' in Southeast Asia, Middle East Times Online, Oct 5, 2010.
5. Such reasoning could be applied to a function of alternative vast countries as well, of course, together with a United States.
Donald K Emmerson heads a Southeast Middle East Forum during Stanford University. His ultimate announcement is "Southeast Asia: Minding a Gap in in in in in between Democracy as good as Governance," Journal of Democracy (April 2012).
Copyright 2012 Middle East Times Online (Holdings) Ltd
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