Buzz Sociopolitics Malaysia: GE-13 likely in 2013

GE-13 likely in 2013

June 5, 2012

GE13 likely in 2013: Najib is not ready to face Voters

by RJ Rajah@www.freemalaysiatoday.com

After all, it looks similar to 2012 competence not be a year of GE-13 as good as shaped upon multiform indications a Barisan Nasional (BN) supervision competence opt to finish its full tenure as good as reason a ubiquitous choosing in between Jan as good as Apr subsequent year.

Even (Tun) Dr Mahathir Mohamad who has turn a front-line supporter for BN as good as UMNO has publicly advised which BN is still diseased as good as which it is not appropriate to reason a ubiquitous choosing now.

In his usual brief style, Mahathir squarely blamed former Prime Minister Abdullah AhmadBadawi's care debacles for a diseased position of BN.

One of a key reasons since BN would opt to postpone a ubiquitous choosing to subsequent year is a fright which Pakatan Rakyat competence not disintegrate their particular state assemblies concurrently with thedissolution of Parliament, thereby completing their full tenure in office until Apr 2013.

If a BN supervision chooses to disintegrate Parliament anytime now, there is a strong probability which a Pakatan parties would save their domestic appetite as good as financial resources by not land elections concurrently for their particular state assemblies as good as this would engage a states of Kedah, Penang, Kelantan as good as Selangor.

As of right divided Pakatan parties have been lucky to retain these states in a eventuality a ubiquitous choosing is held. By not dissolving their particular state assemblies simultaneously, Pakatan would be means to combine usually upon a parliament seats as good as state public elections in alternative states where they have been not in power.

This would e! manate a dangerous situation for BN since instead of aggressive a opposition in their particular states, BN would be pushed to urge a states currently tranquil by them.

Vulnerable states such as Negeri Sembilan, Terengganu, Perak as good as Sabah competence turn a battlegrounds pulling BN to urge these states. Having finished a ubiquitous election, win or lose, Pakatan parties would afterwards pull BN for another fight in a states currently tranquil by Pakatan.

Possibly it is for this reason which BN is reluctant to reason a ubiquitous choosing in 2012 since it would put them in a domestic jeopardy. But if they drag a ubiquitous choosing until subsequent year, afterwards Pakatan would have no choice though to have their state elections concurrently as well.

BN's advantages

BN would additionally have alternative advantages by land a choosing in 2013. Since they have been already in power, they would be means to scold multiform public perceptions as good as would be means to initiate as good as introduce multiform people-oriented programmes to attract votes.

The parliamentary event for a bill presentation would take place in Sep as good as this would give a PM as a Finance Minister another height to announce most proposals as good as programmes with which they would be means to serve attract some of a choosing by casting votes segments.

The BN supervision additionally needs time to enable them to cool down a impact created by a BERSIH 3.0 rally as good as they competence want to finish a hearings of a commission which has been shaped u! nderneat h a chairmanship of Hanif Omar to examine a complaints against a police in apply oneself of a rally.

Since a electoral reforms introduced by a BN supervision have been withdrawn, possibly there would be another set of reforms which a BN competence want to introduce in a subsequent parliamentary session, before a ubiquitous choosing is called. Such electoral reforms if introduced competence additionally show BN's frankness in land giveaway as good as satisfactory elections as good as thereby there would not be any some-more calls for BERSIH 4.0.

Hari Raya Puasa falls upon August nineteen as good as twenty as good as a "Buka Puasa" sessions usually organized by supervision agencies as good as ministries during a month of Ramadan (July to August) would be another event for a BN supervision to reach out to a public as good as civil servants as good as tomingle with them thereby carrying out subtle campaigning for BN.

Possible dates for GE 13

Since a fasting month of Ramadan would embark around Jul nineteen it is doubtful which a ubiquitous choosing would be called before that, given a fact which a BN supervision needs time to scold certain public perceptions quite relating to BERSIH 3.0.

Once Hari Raya Puasa is over, a subsequent possible month for ubiquitous choosing would be Sep though a UPSR examination is commencing upon Sep 11. Again it is doubtful which a ubiquitous choosing would be called before Sep eleven as it would definitely interrupt a schools' preparations for a examination.

The bill parliamentary event would additionally take place during a month of Sep as good as a BN supervision competence not want to skip this golden event of dishing out some goodies for a rakyat in a name of Budget 2013.

Hari Raya Haji falls upon October 26 as good as if a choosing is hold during this month, BN would have to face a wrath of PAS leaders who would criticise UMNO as good as BN for land elections while most Muslims have been ! divided in Mecca behaving their Haj pilgrimage.

To have matters worse, a PMR examination is additionally scheduled to take place during a monthof October. During November, a SPM as good as STPM examinations would be hold in a long widen as good as again land a ubiquitous choosing during this month is additionally out of a question.

In Malaysia, ubiquitous elections have been not hold during a month of December since of a monsoon season in a East Coast states of Peninsular Malaysia. During December, some easterly seashore states together with Johor have been disposed to floods . Therefore, all a factors put together prove which a GE-13 would usually take place in 2013!

RJ Rajah is an spectator as good as bard upon Malaysian politics as good as social issues.