Buzz Sociopolitics Malaysia: South China Sea Disputes: A Threat to Regional Peace and Security

South China Sea Disputes: A Threat to Regional Peace and Security

April 15, 2012

Asia SentinelThe South China SeaFlashpoint

South China Sea Disputes: A Threat to Regional Peace as well as Security

by Khanh Vu Duc

Speculation that the South China Sea disputes will lead to brawl have been not over the realm of possibility, given the countless troops clashes in in in in in between multiform countries in the segment over the past 40 years. The primary belligerents have been familiar: China, the Philippines, as well as Vietnam have at the single indicate exchanged punches opposite the other; although as of late the latter two have assimilated by mutual agreement in their antithesis opposite China.

A brawl in in in in in between China as well as the Philippines has dragged upon this week, commencement when Manila's biggest warship attempted to arrest Chinese fishermen indicted of illegal entry to Scarborough Shoal off the Northwestern Philippine coast. Three Chinese warships responded, ordering the Filipino vessel to leave as well as claiming Chinese sovereignty. Chinese as well as Filipino diplomats have been attempting to finalise the brawl peacefully.

As these disputes grow over territorial possessions to incl! ude the vast, untapped healthy resources of the sea, so too do the parties involved. Last year India ventured into the South China Sea to try resources alongside Vietnam, many to the chagrin of China. Now Russia has assimilated the fray, adding to Beijing's growing headache notwithstanding China's best efforts to limit the number of nations concerned in the region.

OAO Gazprom, the world's biggest natural-gas producer, plans to rise two blocks with PetroVietnam, that takes 49 percent of the corner try plan whilst PetroVietnam holds the infancy share, according to Bloomberg, that reported that PetroVietnam as well as Gazprom have been already exploring for oil as well as gas together offshore.

With the inclusion of India, Russia, and, of course, the United States, it thus seems doubtful that the South China Sea disputes will lead to conflictat least with not any of these countries listed. China will not so fast rivet in armed brawl with countries whose arms depot includes chief deterrence capabilities, never thoughts that they have been not petitioner states in the maritime as well as territorial disputes themselves. They have been simply not worth the effort. China may, however, be at home the muscles with the less means nation.

Vietnam many expected to be targeted

With Vietnam as well as the Philippines many opposed to China, should troops brawl arise from the disputes, Vietnam is the many expected to bear the brunt of China's ire. Despite the escalating rhetoric as well as displays of forc! e upon t he partial of the Philippines, China is doubtful to do more opposite the country than it has already finished in the past.

The Mutual Defense Treaty in in in in in between the US as well as Philippines creates any engagement in in in in in between China as well as the latter unwise, as it would probably entice American intervention. As China wishes to keep the US out of the South China Sea, an dispute upon the Philippines would be unappealing. Similarly, as troops brawl is far from the desires of the US, Washington has perhaps stressed to Manila the need to restrain itself.

With the Philippines out of the question, China has but only the single foe in reach. Vietnam has neither the defense covenant with the US nor the open sea for the healthy barrier. It shares the border with China, that has in the past served as the frontlines of skirmishes as well as the Sino-Vietnamese War. There is small love mislaid in in in in in between these two neighbors; as well as if Vietnam as well as China had ever shared great relations, they have right divided surely deteriorated.

Neither India nor Russia, an fan during the Soviet era, will rush blindly to defend Vietnam if it is attacked, risking unnecessary confrontation with China. Although India has been open in their partnership with Vietnam for apparatus exploration, Russia's new impasse has raised questions concerning the motives.

While Vietnam might be means to count upon material await from their brand new friends if necessary, but they cannot design benefit in the way the US would meddle for the Philippines. The sobering as well as grave being for Hanoi is that, of all the petitioner states concerned in the disputes, it is the many unprotected to China. Vietnam contingency thus travel the excellent line in in in in in between appeasing nationalist ! sentimen ts as well as progressing the operative attribute with China.

Indonesia: A mediating role

Divergent interests of petitioner states as well as third parties (such as the US as well as India) in the South China Sea have difficult the peaceful resolution. However, if the sea can be pacified, it requires the neutral third celebration acceptable to all states involved.

It is doubtful that the United States would fool around such the role, if any, in solution these disputes given China's insistence upon not internationalizing the issue, as well as the misgivings over any American participation in the region. It is additionally doubtful that the United Nations would be means to assist for the same reasons. As such, the "neutral" third celebration might not be wholly neutral; however, the word contingency lift weight, as well as it contingency been seen to be just sufficient by all those involved.

Indonesia, the petitioner state, has so far remained somewhat above the fray. It has not engaged in the same exhilarated rhetoric opposite China as the Philippines or Vietnam. Of all the petitioner states, it is the many populous as well as possesses the largest economy after China; and, as with China, the demand for energy will only enlarge over time. It is the first member of ASEAN as well as the many new host of the ASEAN Summit as well as East Asian Summit.

Indonesia has thus far refused to plainly await China or the Philippines as well as Vietnam, that has authorised it to remain fairly neutral. Although Indonesia has claims to waters around the Natuna Islands, that have been additionally claimed by China as well as Taiwan, it does not have the interest in the more quarrelsome Spratlys. Furthermore, Indonesia has clever ties with China as well as the US, both of that have been critical commercial as well as economic partners.

Indonesia is pe! rfectly matched to fool around the mediating purpose if required; however, it stays to be seen if China wishes to step divided from the insistence upon bilateral resolutions.

Chinese influence over states similar to the Philippines as well as Vietnam is minimal; as well as as tensions in the segment continue to rise, China might as well as should privately find outward assistance. China has many to lose in any arrange of conflict, if only because any fight is an unnecessary weight upon the burgeoning economy. While Beijing is doubtful to select the course of action in that it risks losing face, it would not overlook the benefits of stabilizing the South China Sea, even if stabilization is simply progressing the standing quoIndia as well as Russia included.

(Khanh Vu Duc is the Vietnamese Canadian lawyer in Ottawa, focusing upon various areas of law. He researches upon International Relations as well as International Law.)