There have been 3 millions brand brand brand brand brand brand brand brand new electorate in the subsequent ubiquitous election. Both sides have been trying really tough to get these votes. Many of the measures adopted by both sides have been aimed during removing most of these votes.
Generally speaking, immature electorate have been some-more of the anti-establishment type as well as so on the surface, it would be the boom to the antithesis with the little most immature electorate choosing by casting votes for the initial time.
However, things have been mostly not quite they have been if you demeanour deeper. The key subject is how most of these immature electorate have been in marginally seats?
If most of these immature electorate have been in civic or semiurban areas which have been already won by quite the comfortable domain by the opposition, afterwards there would not be most stroke on the number of seats won by the opposition,
For example, in the area where we reside, PJ Utara, Tony Pua won by the majority of some-more than 19000 votes in the subdivision with 56000 voters. Let us contend which there is now an additional 10,000 brand brand brand brand brand brand brand brand new electorate in this subdivision for the subsequent GE, as well as most of these brand brand brand brand brand brand brand brand new electorate have been for the opposition. Their votes would not have most of the difference in Parliament representation, solely to safeguard which Pua will win by the bigger margin.
I think most of the 3 millions brand brand brand brand brand brand brand brand new electorate have been in civic as well as almost civic areas given immature people tend to drift to the cities to find jobs as well as settle down. we do not have the figure, but if which is the case, it would usually secure what is already quite secure fortresses of the opposition, as well as stroke wise, it would not have as most of the difference as to be approaching from the commission of b! rand bra nd brand brand brand brand brand brand new electorate contra sum votes.
It would be therefore be engaging if any one who has access to the number of brand brand brand brand brand brand brand brand new electorate in all the constituencies to break down into parts how most of the marginal seats have some-more than 30% of brand brand brand brand brand brand brand brand new voters.
In the subdivision of 10,000 electorate won by BN where the winning domain is slightly reduction than the thousand (let us contend 900 votes), the antithesis needs the 45% enlarge in brand brand brand brand brand brand brand brand new votes if some-more than 60% of these brand brand brand brand brand brand brand brand new electorate choosing by casting votes the antithesis (the mathematics is as followed: 60% of the brand brand brand brand brand brand brand brand new 4500 votes go to the antithesis which is 2700, contra 40% of the 4500 brand brand brand brand brand brand brand brand new votes which is 1800, an enlarge of 900 votes won). This is on the arrogance which the aged electorate have been choosing by casting votes along the same line as before.
If some-more than 70% of brand brand brand brand brand brand brand brand new electorate opinion for antithesis contra 30% for BN in such the BN constituency, afterwards the antithesis needs an enlarge of 30% of brand brand brand brand brand brand brand brand new electorate to have any possibility of winning which seat.
We know which nonetheless most immature electorate have been anti establishment, you must not dont think about which in any cohort, during slightest 30% would approaching opinion against ubiquitous trend. So in general, if the BN chair has the winning domain of some-more than 900 votes, afterwards you need to have some-more than 30% of brand brand brand brand brand brand brand brand new electorate to have the opposite outcome, assuming again which aged votes choosing by casting votes a! long the same line as before.
I think not most of the BN seats will have such the big suit of immature voters. Most of the immature electorate will be in civic as well as almost civic constituencies already held by PR.
Therefore, in my view, the brand brand brand brand brand brand brand brand new votes would not have as most of the difference as to be approaching from the commission of brand brand brand brand brand brand brand brand new electorate contra sum votes.
The stroke of course would be bigger if the domain of winning in such BN seats is reduction than 900 votes.
Nvertheless, the brand brand brand brand brand brand brand brand new votes would, as we have mentioned above, have PR seats some-more secure , as well as which would have it unlikely for BN to win some-more than 2/3 of seats, nor win behind the states of Penang as well as Selangor. Thus, even in the eventuality of the BN win in the GE, these brand brand brand brand brand brand brand brand new votes would safeguard which BN's win would not be any better than the last GE
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