On Sep 7, word leaked out which BN unexpected had orderly the "compulsory" abroad investigate tour for all 81 parliamentary backbenchers (those who do not offer as ministers or emissary ministers) which would shut in the MPs abroad from Sep 8 until Sep 17, the day after Anwar's deadline. (As of Sep 9, 41 MPs had departed; the little MPs have refused to go citing fasting month activities with constituents.) UMNO leaders' explanations which the outing was required for the MPs to sense about the latest rural techniques in Taiwan unsuccessful to convince; instead, this has appeared to most observers as the measure of recklessness by the supervision uncertain of the support.
THE CORRIDORS OF POWER
Raja Petra Kamarudin
Classified By: Political Section Chief Mark D. Clark, reason 1.4 (b as great as d)
Summary
1. (C) Prime Minister Abdullah as great as tip leaders of his United Malays National Organization (UMNO) crop up enervated as they approach the Sep sixteen deadline set by antithesis personality Anwar Ibrahim for toppling Abdullah's National Front (BN) government. UMNO's irregularity as great as the debility of the BN bloc have been unprotected in the run-up to the 16th. The strongest indications which Anwar could have great upon his guarantee begin from UMNO itself, together with the party's open preoccupation with the subject of crossovers as great as the seemingly unfortunate decision to shut in BN MP's abroad so which they would be out of the nation for Anwar's deadline.
UMNO's miss of courage reflects the party's ongoing care difficulty as great as miss of conviction in Abdullah, deficiency of the viable brand brand brand new prophesy for the party! , as gre at as the serve wearing away of support, particularly among non-Malays, for the statute bloc given the Mar choosing set-back. BN has tattered serve along secular lines following caustic remarks about Malaysian Chinese by an UMNO multiplication leader, who has refused Abdullah's instructions to apologize, the situation call an surprising notice from the Armed Force chief. The supervision has not stopped Anwar with charges of sodomy, whilst Anwar perceived the clever progress by his successful choosing to council final month, bringing him the single step closer to his idea of becoming the subsequent Prime Minister.
2. (C) UMNO's irregularity as great as the unprotected debility of the BN multi-racial coalition, rsther than than the unlikely awaiting of 30-plus crossovers by Sep 16, crop up to be the most important story during this juncture. Along with this come renewed doubts about Prime Minister Abdullah's longevity in bureau as great as his capability to see himself by Dec as great as the UMNO elections. End Summary.
Uncertain Prospects for Sep sixteen Crossovers
3. (C) Prime Minister Abdullah as great as tip leaders of his statute UMNO celebration crop up enervated as they approach the Sep sixteen deadline set by antithesis personality Anwar Ibrahim for toppling Abdullah's National Front (BN) government. With usually the single week to go before the 16th (which outlines the formation of complicated Malaysia by the union of Sabah as great as Sarawak, delectable to would-be defectors in those states), no MPs have reliable publicly their intentions to switch sides, nor do you or the tighten partner embassies have in isolation confirmation of defections. Anwar, who additionally leads the People's Justice Party (PKR), continues to insinuate which crossovers will happen by Sep 16, or thereabouts, though his lieutenants as great as the leaders of his bloc parties, PAS as great as DAP, ! have hed ged their comments to us as great as to the m! edia.
UMNO Jittery, Corrals MPs Abroad
4. (C) In the deficiency of concrete evidence of imminent crossovers, the strongest indications which Anwar could have great upon his guarantee begin from UMNO itself which seems gripped by disbelief bordering upon panic. PM Abdullah, Deputy PM Najib, as great as alternative tip UMNO leaders have issued repeated open denials which the supervision would remove the parliamentary majority, or which Anwar was the verge of presenting the King (who plays the consequential consti! tutional purpose in change-of-government scenarios) with the list of cross-over supporters.
On Sep 7, word leaked out which BN unexpected had orderly the "compulsory" abroad investigate tour for all 81 parliamentary backbenchers (those who do not offer as ministers or emissary ministers) which would shut in the MPs abroad from Sep 8 until Sep 17, the day after Anwar's deadline. (As of Sep 9, 41 MPs had departed; the little MPs have refused to go citing fasting month activities with constituents.) UMNO leaders' explanations which the outing was required for the MPs to sense about the latest rural techniques in Taiwan unsuccessful to convince; instead, this has appeared to most observers as the measure of recklessness by the supervision uncertain of the support.
5. (C) We have had in isolation indications as great of UMNO's miss of self confidence. The British High Commissioner (protect) sensitive the Ambassador which he recently perceived the telephone! call fr om the cabinet minister. The apportion asked the British envoy whether Anwar unequivocally had enough numbers of MPs prepared to cross-over as great as bring down the government.
A comparison personality inside of the UMNO Youth multiplication contacted us to ask what the U.S. in front of would be when Anwar takes over the supervision by "undemocratic" means. UMNO Youth subsequently called upon the Bar Council as great as NGOs, organizations UMNO has derided in the past, to speak out oppos! ite Anwa r's plans.
Lack of Confidence; UMNO Leadership Unresolved
6. (C) UMNO's miss of courage in the face of Anwar's threats reflects the party's miss of consolidation given the Mar choosing debacle as great as unresolved, elemental hurdles to the party's future. First, UMNO had not nonetheless emerged from the care crisis. Abdullah Badawi has remained Prime Minister as great as celebration president, not because he has rallied the confidence of UMNO leaders as great as the open -- he has not.
By as great as large, UMNO members go upon to view Abdullah as inadequate as great as weak-willed, as great as have supposing usually temperate await for Abdullah's devise to hand over energy to DPM Najib in mid-2010. Abdullah essentially has remained in place because Najib, his categorical intensity challenger, has so distant been as well politically vulnerable to have the move. Top-down celebration carry out mechanisms concede Abdullah to smother or shut off alternative challengers, as great as circumstances have not nonetheless forced UMNO elites to take extreme transformation to force Abdullah's re! signatio n. UMNO anxiety over Abdullah's diseased care remains, however, as great as is in the vast part the function of the hazard to UMNO acted by Anwar, as witnessed during the evident aftershock of the Mar electoral setback.
The larger Anwar's threat, the some-more UMNO leaders have been willing to consider replacing Abdullah with the stronger, some-more competent defender of the party. UMNO open rhetoric in early September, such as UMNO Selangor warlord Khir Toyo's open idea Abdullah could be eased out like Malaysia's initial Prime Minister Abdul Rahman in the midst of race riots in 1969, has started to take upon the ominous tones you listened in the weeks following the Mar 8 election.
UMNO Yet to Find Viable Model for Renewal
7. (C) UMNO's miss of confidence additionally grows out of the disaster to remodel or arrive during the viable ! prophesy for the domestic future. Some UMNO leaders flirted with approved remodel as great as great governance concepts to revive the party's picture as great as appeal to the public, skirting closer to the Opposition platform. Such internal celebration care died out by early May, as UMNO saw which it could operate the levers of energy even with the strong series of antithesis seats in Parliament.
PM Abdullah's announcement of the populist bill in late August additionally unsuccessful to give UMNO the progress or have up for politically unpopular fuel price hikes progressing in the year. To the border which UMNO leaders have embraced the model for consolidating as great as energizing the party, ! they hav e fallen behind upon the old model of Malay chauvinism, utilizing the UMNO tranquil Malay denunciation media to advise of the Opposition's threats to the primacy of Islam as great as Malay privileges. Absent sum missteps by Anwar's non-Malay allies, such calls so distant have had singular inflection among today's better-educated, reduction rural Malay population. Appeals for Malay Muslim solidarity to date additionally have unsuccessful to woo await from conservative PAS voters, who broadly rejected UMNO's during the behind of the scenes overtures to select PAS leaders when these talks came to light.
Increased Stress upon BN's Multi-Racial Coalition
8. (C) UMNO's unresolved care crisis, miss of remodel as great as resort to Malay chauvinism have had the transparent disastrous impact upon UMNO's non-Malay partners in the National Front coalition, already enervated by the mass departure of non-Malay electorate in the Mar polls. Chinese as great as Indian await for BN has eroded serve given March, as indicated by singular polling as great as sharpening flare-ups between UMNO hardliners as great as Chinese leaders in the Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA) as great as the Gerakan party. The brand brand new remarks by Penang UMNO multiplication personality Ahmad Ismail, re! ferring to Chinese citizens as "squatters", has touched off the most serious inter-racial feuding inside of BN, with MCA as great as Gerakan raising questions about their destiny inside of UMNO.
Abdullah Struggles to Contain Inter-Racial Feud
9. (C) Abdullah to illustrate distant has not succeeded in controlling the Ahmad Ismail situation; Abdullah substituted an apology around DPM Najib, though Ahmad Ismail refused the celebration president's instructions to behind down, upon condition which the reprove to Abdullah's leadership. MCA as great as Gerakan voiced upon Sep 8 they had damaged family with UMNO inside of Penang state. Abdullah reportedly will make use of the BN's Sep 9 care to try to finish BN's stream inter-racial feud as great as correct family with MCA in particular.
Prior to the meeting, Armed Force Chief Abdul Aziz remarked to an UMNO entertainment which the supervision contingency action sternly opposite those who could provoke secular conflict, an surprising matter from the military which normally refrains from such comments as great as which in the local context might be taken as the notice to non-Malays. While UMNO could attain in patching up this evident issue, UMNO's the single after an additional importance upon ultra-Malay rhetoric guarantees growing strains with MCA as great as alternative BN partners, together with those in East Malaysia.
Anwar Buoyed by Election
10. (C) While UMNO as great as BN struggle internally, Anwar Ibrahim perceived the major progress with his late August choosing to Parliament which done him Opposition personality in Parliament as great as brought him the single required step closer to becoming the subsequent Prime Minister (only MPs might become Prime Minister). Anwar's feat in the Penang by-election in his home district was never in serious doubt, though the huge domain of his victory, exceeding which of his mother in March, was grim news to
Abdullah as great as UMNO, setting off rene! wed call s inside of UMNO for Abdullah to step down quickly. Since then, Anwar as great as his PKR lieutenants have tried to press their value by reaffirming which they have over thirty MPs ready to cross over, even whilst the little have downplayed the stress of the Sep sixteen deadline. Anwar countered Abdullah's populist bill with his own mercantile vision. As BN's secular problems deepened, he Opposition alliance (Pakatan) upon Sep 8 sought domestic value by issuing the matter condemning UMNO's Ahmad Ismail as great as alternative UMNO leaders for racially charged rhetoric whilst affirming Pakatan's confluence to the Constitution's supplies for Islam as great as Malay prerogatives.
Sodomy Trial Pending; the Temptation to Deny Bail
11. (C) The government's bureau of sodomy charges opposite Anwar has not derailed the Opposition leader, though upon the contrary has generated the little sympathy for Anwar as the victim of harm among the infancy of the race who view the charges as politically motivated. Anwar's the single after an additional bail as great as freedom of movement, tentative the result of the trial which might devour most months, is the vicious matter for the Opposition; Anwar in jail could not hope to negotiate crossovers as great as the formation of the brand brand brand new government, the purpose which usually he can play during this juncture.
Although the supervision so distant has not pressed for Anwar's detention during the trial, as great as has done arguments for reversal of bail reduction convincing by granting police bail in Jul as great as not challenging bail when Anwar was charged with the crime in August, UMNO leaders could be sorely tempted to ! revisit the question.
Detaining Anwar would be the single approach to try to put an finish the cross-over threat, though such the pierce would inhere costs together with in the area of open opinion. (Note: Anwar will crop up in justice tomorrow, Sep 10; PKR supporters now have been vocalizatio! n about the possible denial of bail, whilst the authorities have been notice opposite disruptions during the justice venue. End Note.)
Comment
12. (C) We believe the contingency have been opposite Anwar removing the required thirty or some-more crossovers to bring down the supervision in the single week's time, notwithstanding UMNO's evident insecurity. Many MPs will wish to be positive they have been joining the winning side as great as not exposing themselves to extreme risk; the crossing over of parties, rsther than than individuals, would yield some-more security in this regard. Parties additionally bring with them some-more negotiate energy to the brand brand brand new coalition. Aside from the couple of micro-parties, like SAPP in Sabah, there is little denote Anwar has sealed such celebration deals. The Opposition additionally recognizes the risk if as well most non-Malays stick upon their ranks but the series of Malays in the mix, as this would feed rught away in to UMNO's claims which the Opposition threatens Malay interests as great as Islam.
13. (C) It is trustworthy which Anwar arranges for the little MPs to crossover upon or by Sep 16, preserving the credibility of his hazard as great as giving him the basement for arguing which it is usually the matter of time. If no the single jumps by Sep 16, Anwar's arguments will be har! der to m ake, as great as he might remove the movement he now enjoys from his brand brand new choosing to Parliament. Nevertheless, Anwar has committed himself to the project of bringing down the UMNO/BN supervision by crossovers, rsther than than watchful for an additional inhabitant choosing in three or 4 years time. Sep sixteen will not be the finish of Anwar's push.
14. (C) UMNO's irregularity as great as the unprotected debility of the BN multi-racial coalition, rsther than than the awaiting of Sep sixteen crossovers, appears to be the most important story during this specific juncture. Crossover be scared represents th! e sympto m of UMNO's difficulty some-more so than the thoughtfulness of Anwar's strength. Along with this come renewed doubts about Prime Minister Abdullah's longevity in bureau as great as his capability to see himself by Dec as great as the UMNO elections. As collateral damage from UMNO's care struggle as great as preoccupation with warding off Anwar, you can expect supervision policy-making to go upon during most appropriate in an ad hoc fashion when it is not inept altogether. Attention to unfamiliar process will take the distant behind chair unless it is related to domestic survival during home.
KEITH (September 2008)
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