The Ambassador met upon Oct thirty with Tengku Razaleigh, who, as a usually challenger to DPM Najib for a UMNO presidency, had nonetheless to garner a singular UMNO multiplication assignment (he right away has one). Casting himself as a reformer, Razaleigh pronounced which he wished to move larger democracy as well as clarity to UMNO, though which he could not compete in a stream assignment competition in a face of engrained crime as well as money-politics.
THE CORRIDORS OF POWER
Raja Petra Kamarudin
C O N F we D E N T we A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KUALA LUMPUR 000991
SIPDIS
FOR EAP AND INR
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/16/2018
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, KDEM, MY
SUBJECT: ANWAR SHIFTS GEARS, NOT GOALS, SAY AIDES
REF: KUALA LUMPUR 979 - INITIAL REACTION TO U.S. ELECTION
Classified By: Political Counselor Mark D. Clark for reasons 1.4 (b as well as d).
Summary as well as Comment
1. (C) Opposition personality Anwar Ibrahim has shifted to a less aggressive viewpoint for now, though his idea stays bringing down a UMNO-led supervision by parliamentary crossovers prior to to Deputy Prime Minister Najib becoming a subsequent UMNO celebration boss as well as Prime Minister, according to top officials in Anwar's Peoples Justice Party (PKR).
Part of Anwar's strategy entails reaching out to a "losers" in a passing from a singular to another from Prime Minister Abdullah to Najib, together with UMNO maestro Tengku Razaleigh. The PKR officials concurred which a government's Sep arrests of 3 persons under a Internal Security Act (ISA) had s! ent an e ffective notice to those deliberation switching their await to Anwar. !
P KR officials as well as Anwar's lawyers assumed a sodomy prosecution opposite Anwar would move forward, with a hearing proviso likely commencement by January. The Opposition was doubtful to await "superficial" reforms which UMNO would try to pour out by council as partial of effusive PM Abdullah's legacy.
The Ambassador met upon Oct thirty with Tengku Razaleigh, who complained about his incapacity to compete in a UMNO assignment routine due to income politics as well as contended which a subsequent UMNO boss (Najib) would not indispensably turn a subsequent Prime Minister.
2. (C) Comment: We right away have been witnessing a opposite tinge as well as pace in a struggle between a Opposition as well as UMNO following Anwar's unrealized Sep deadline as well as a fast converging of UMNO await at a back of Najib as a subsequent Prime Minister.
While PKR's rationale for wanting to head-off Najib stays in place, Anwar has mislaid political movement for a moment as well as seems to face increasingly long odds in securing future crossovers. Anwar's capability to capture a "losers" from a Abdullah-Najib passing from a singular to another stays theoretical. End Summary as well as Comment.
Anwar's Less Aggressive Posture
3. (C) Polcouns met alone with PKR Information Chief Tian Chua as well as PKR Vice President Sivarasa Rasiah upon Nov 3 as well as 5, respectively. Both PKR officials concurred which Opposition personality Anwar Ibrahim has shifted to a reduce key approach given a thoroughfare of Anwar's open Sep 16 deadline to move down PM Abdullah's supervision by a crossover of thirty or more supervision MPs.
Compared with September, Anwar is right away more focused upon consolidating a Opposition People's Alliance (Pakatan Rakyat), which encompasses 3 parties with mostly disparate political views: PKR, a Chinese-dominated Demo! cratic A ction Party (DAP), as well as a Islamic Party of Malaysia (PAS). As a formal Opposition personality in Parliament, Anwar is devoting courtesy to Pakatan's actions ! in parli ament as well as running Opposition MPs, many of whom have been sitting in a physique for a initial time.
Crossover Goal Unchanged
4. (C) Despite his less aggressive open posture, Anwar's idea stays bringing down a UMNO-led supervision by parliamentary crossovers prior to to Deputy Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak becoming a subsequent UMNO celebration boss as well as Prime Minister, Tian Chua as well as Sivarasa stated.
The time horizon has shifted from Dec to March 2009, in line with a change in a UMNO celebration elections, at which time Najib is set to turn UMNO boss uncontested. PKR officials reiterated which Anwar as well as PKR sojourn focused upon preempting Najib's takeover if possible, since they believe Najib would plead authoritarian measures to scuttle a Opposition prior to a subsequent national elections.
In a months ahead, PKR would look for opportunities to weaken await for Najib as well as a government, for e.g. by criticizing GOM measures in a face of a probable dramatic downturn in a manage to buy following a global financial crisis, or by regulating new report joining Najib to scandals, similar to a Altantuya box as well as a Eurocopter purchase.
(Comment: Anwar as well as other Opposition leaders have taken up such issues in Parliament over a past couple of weeks. On Nov 4, Anwar led a walk-out of Opposition MPs to criticism Najib's refusal to allow questions during his presentation of revised budget figures. End Comment.)
Attracting a "Losers"
5. (C) Anwar does not have sufficient racial Malay MPs ready to stick upon a Opposition, according to both Tian Chua as well as Sivarasa, though which a Opposition faces unsuitable risks of a harsh supervision backlash fit upon a basis of Malay nat! ionalism .
Anwar reportedly hopes to capture antagonistic UMNO leaders as well as MPs who have been "losers" in a stream passing from a singular to another from Abdullah to Najib; many distinguished between these is maestro UMNO personality Tengku Razaleigh Hamza! h.
Talks with Razaleigh sojourn inconclusive since Razaleigh continues to insist upon a prospective position of Prime Minister, while PKR estimates which Razaleigh could secure a crossover of usually four or five UMNO MPs (see notes next from a Ambassador's new meeting with Razaleigh).
Anwar is also progressing hit with PM Abdullah at this stage, primarily by son-in-law Khairy Jamaluddin, Tian Chua said. Whether members of Abdullah's round would consider channel over to Anwar remained an open question.
ISA as Warning to MPs
6. (C) The dual PKR officials concurred which a government's Sep arrests of 3 persons -- a journalist, an Opposition MP as well as blogger Raja Petra -- under a Internal Security Act (ISA) had sent an effective notice to those MPs deliberation switching await to Anwar. (let's discuss Petra's recover today)
(Comment: In early October, UMNO MP Nur Jazlan told Polcouns which a ISA arrests had been "very successful" in achieving UMNO's objective of intimidating MPs who had deliberate joining with Anwar. End Comment.)
Sodomy Trial Will Remain a Factor
7. (C) Sankara Nair, a distinguished profession for Anwar, told us upon Nov 5 that, regardless of maneuvers in a stream Sessions Court, it usually a matter of time prior to a supervision shifted Anwar's sodomy box to a High Court, a more favorable venue for a prosecution.
Sivarasa, who also serves as a singular of Anwar's lawyers, believed which a hearing proviso of a sodomy box would proceed in aspiring by January.
Neither Sankara nor Sivarasa believed a supervision would drop a case.
Opposition Unlikely to Support Abdullah's Reform! s
8. (C) The Prime Minister's round -- by Khairy -- has approached Anwar regarding await for legal remodel measures which would be presented in Parliament soon as partial of Abdullah's parting legacy, according to Sivarasa as well as Ti! an Chua. The Opposition, however, was doubtful to await these measures since they did not represent meaningful changes.
The Opposition believed, for example, a proposed changes to a Anti-Corruption Commission would leave a physique under organisation executive control. Following a resignation of authorised remodel Minister Zaid Ibrahim, Nazri Aziz, de facto Minister for parliamentary affairs, led a legal remodel discussions in Parliament, though he lacked credibility.
Anwar as well as a U.S. Presidential Election
9. (U) Following his initial remarks of Nov 5 (reftel), Anwar has continued to comment in all positively upon Senator Obama's feat in a U.S. presidential election. Time Magazine highlighted Anwar's remarks upon President-elect Obama as a initial between those of usually eleven distinguished universe personalities.
Anwar wrote that, "In Obama's feat have been sown a seeds of good expectations which a truly new chapter will be written in a history of a world." Anwar publicly claimed he had been in hit with Senator Obama.
Ambassador Calls upon Razaleigh
10. (C) The Ambassador met upon Oct thirty with Tengku Razaleigh, who, as a usually challenger to DPM Najib for a UMNO presidency, had nonetheless to garner a singular UMNO multiplication assignment (he right away has one). Casting himself as a reformer, Razaleigh pronounced which he wished to move larger democracy as well as clarity to UMNO, though which he could not compete in a stream assignment competition in a face of engrained crime as well as money-politics.
Razaleigh pronounced which Najib's entrance to energy would allow former Prime Minister Mahathir to recover estimable change within a government. Razaleigh indi! cated hi s relations with Mahathir, his former political rival, remained strained.
11. (C) While Razaleigh conceded which Najib would win a UMNO contest, he stressed several times to a Ambassador which a subsequent UMNO boss would not indispensably turn a subsequent Prime Minister, though did not further exp! lain thi s remark.
Razaleigh speculated which there right away existed grounds for PM Abdullah as well as Anwar Ibrahim to work together, for e.g. upon remodel measures. Razaleigh thought which Khairy Jamaluddin right away acted as a match for Abdullah as well as Anwar. Razaleigh acknowledged, as he has publicly, which he continues hit with opposition politicians, though he did not differently signal he planned to leave UMNO.
KEITH
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