January 1, 2013
UMNO in participation mode
by Dr Johan Saravanamuttu
Racial sentiments ran high, tears flowed, the rhetoric became warlike, the May 13 ghost was resurrected as good as even Allah (God) was invoked during the 66th UMNO gathering which wound to the close upon the initial day of December 2012.
Gearing up for the "mother of all elections" due to be reason inside of months, UMNO leaders were striking out the posture of oneness as good as rallying the troops. However, belying the pomp, decibels as good as intercourse was an undertone of the dominant domestic celebration of Malaysia losing most of the "mojo" as good as rather in the participation mode.
Milling around the gathering premises as good as listening to the emotionally charged speeches of delegates, the single could not though palpably clarity which UMNO was the celebration underneath siege. UMNO, as the domestic engineer of the unbroken 50-plus-year rule of the Barisan Nasional (BN), might in truth have been obliged for the detriment of the statute coalition's customary two-thirds infancy of seats in Parliament as good as 5 state governments in the 2008 ubiquitous election, the misfortune electoral outing to date.
The fact which the UMNO's President Najib Razak, who is additionally the Prime Minister, has reason 
back from job the ubiquitous choosing up until currently suggests which UMNO as good as the bloc partners go upon to have doubts which their opening in the stirring choosing would be up to par. The window to call the choosing closes completely upon Apr 28, 2013 by which time the supervision wou! ld have served out the maximum term of 5 years. The Election Commission would then have the option to reason the choosing inside of dual months.
Thinkable Opposition win?
On the final day of the assembly, Najib vowed to win behind the two-thirds infancy of seats in Parliament though all indications are which the BN will tumble reduced in the arriving election. Serious domestic analysts see the BN winning only the elementary infancy of the 222 parliamentary seats up for competition as good as unlikely to wring behind all the state governments of Penang, Kedah, Kelantan as good as Selangor mislaid in 2008. Moreover, it might mount the chance of losing Perak, which was turned over when three Pakatan Rakyat (PR) lawmakers hopped out of the antithesis bloc in Feb 2009.
UMNO's 79 seats consecrate about 36 per cent of the sum series won by the BN as good as if the peninsula bloc partners MCA, MIC as good as Gerakan destroy to retain their stream reason upon 20 seats, this could spell real trouble. Further haemorrhaging could start in Sabah as good as Sarawak, where non-UMNO bloc parties reason 41 seats for the BN. Indeed, if things spin out most worse than before, the unfolding of an antithesis win is not unthinkable.
The justification modernized here is which UMNO as good as the partners in BN have mislaid the "first-mover-advantage" as the statute bloc in Malaysia for the final 5 decades or some-more as good as right away faces dwindling earnings upon institutional arrangements as good as processes which it has pioneered, quite when the new successful player, in this case, the PR, enters the scene.
This unfolding has been given credence because PR has been gaining belligerent in Sarawak as good as Sabah given 2008, the dual solid stronghold states of the BN. In the Apr 2011 state choosing in Sarawak, PR won the sum of fifteen seats which could good interpret in to 6 to eight parliamentary seats in the coming GE 13. In Sabah, dual BN MPs, Lajim Ukin! of UMNO as good as Wilfred Bumburing of UPKO, left their respective parties in Jul 2012 as good as have set up the PR-friendly entity. Earlier in 2009, the SAPP, led by former Chief Minister Yong Teck Lee, additionally weaned itself out of the BN. The BN's sum of 140 seats could good diminution significantly given these developments.
But what about UMNO itself, would it means to retain the stream share of seats or enlarge them? Why does the celebration gathering of 2012 attest an observable tinge of defensiveness as good as insecurity?
UMNO's predicament
To understand UMNO's stream predicament, it will be required to backtrack to 2008. UMNO reason the small over half the Malay belligerent in conditions of renouned votes as good as seats in 2008. One estimate put Malay await for the BN during the small 58 per cent. The BN itself won just over 50 per cent of the renouned vote. It is hard to essentially fairly magnitude the commission of Malay await for UMNO via the nation though upon the basis of UMNO's opening in opposition which of the Islamist party, PAS, in the Muslim heartland of the easterly coast as good as the northern Malay states of the peninsula, the single could venture the small some-more fine-grain interpretations of the Malay vote.
UMNO's slippage in maintaining Malay await has been clear over the years with the concomitant taking flight participation of PAS. An additional element is the PKR participation in the some-more urban Malay areas.
Perlis has remained an UMNO stronghold though even so there has been the slippage of 3.6 per cent of votes. The slippage in Kedah was quite clear as good as this saw the supervision shift for the initial time to the PR. In conditions of renouned votes in Terengganu, the domain of shift in the final choosing was low after the surge in 1999. The chances are which in the 13th GE, Kelantan will sojourn firmly in PAS's hold as good as unless there is the retreat swing of votes in Kedah, it will soj! ourn und erneath PAS care as well. There would be the graphic possibility for Terengganu to be behind in the welcome of PAS.
After an rare 16 by-elections reason after the 2008 GE, it has been "even stevens" between BN as good as PR. This suggests which BN-PR strengths have largely remained unvaried as good as which the two-coalition complement has the single after another to track.
One sold by-election illustrating the debility of UMNO vis--vis PAS was the competition for Bukit Gantang, the parliamentary subdivision with an citizens of 55,471 citizens lying upon the outskirts of Taiping town. A former stronghold of UMNO, it upheld in to PAS's hands during the 2008 election, the Islamist celebration capturing the credible infancy of 1,566 votes. The death of the PAS MP forced the Apr 7, 2009 by-election which saw the charismatic Nizar Jamaluddin take upon UMNO's Ismail Safian.
In the eventuality Nizar, the deposed Mentri Besar of Perak, won the seat with an increased infancy of 2,789 votes. An research by PAS showed which Nizar might have won only 43 per cent of the Malay votes. The results showed which the some-more rural areas of Trong gave UMNO the infancy of votes whilst the some-more urban regions around Sepang, Bukit Gantang correct as good as Kuala Sepetang gave Nizar sizeable majorities. Nizar won the seat by capturing the large portion of the Malay votes, though in Malaysian governing body today, this is the required though not the sufficient condition for success. Nizar had to win the non-Malay votes by the good domain as good as he did.
Thus, in sold constituencies, non-Malay citizens have become kingmakers whenever the Malay opinion is split down the middle. It was clear which Nizar swept the non-Malay, often Chinese, votes, infrequently to the balance of 80 per cent. A field trip to! Kuala S epatang (formerly Port Weld), supposing the author with the graphic impression which the Chinese fishing village seemed totally understanding of Nizar, who in his reduced tenure as MB had legalized temporary operating looseness (TOL) land to Chinese farmers as good as alternative tenants.
For the comparison, let us right away spin to the Tenang by-election in Johor reason upon January 30, 2011. This 14th by-election witnessed the resurgence of voter await for UMNO, though fell reduced of the 5,000-vote infancy which it had expected. UMNO took the seat by the infancy of 3,707 votes, the small 1,200 some-more than what it gained in 2008 with the voter audience of 9,833, which is only 67 per cent of the electorate. Widespread flooding in the subdivision upon choosing by casting votes day accounted for the low voter turnout.
Tenang practically exhibits the Peninsula template of Malay-Chinese-Indian placement (49-38-12, as good as 1 per cent "others") as good as the result was seen by the small as the barometer of the state of play in Malaysian electoral politics. The UMNO candidate Azahar Ibrahim might have swept some-more than 80 per cent of the Malay vote. The PAS challenger, Normala Sudirman, apparently won the Chinese vote, though the numbers might have shrunk rather given 2008. This was thought to be because of the low voter audience between the Chinese. She was means only to win the infancy in the 95 per cent Chinese polling area of Labis Tengah though mislaid in Labis Timor as good as in Labis Station, which had reduce Chinese percentages.
The DAP explain is which she still picked up the infancy of Chinese votes. DAP broadside chief
Tony Pua suggested which UMNO's Azahar received 83.3 per cent of Malay votes, up 4 commission points from 2008. This was helped by an 81 per cent spin out by Malay voters. The Indian op! inion ad ditionally went to BN, though the village had the low 40 per cent turnout. The by-election was injured by large flooding as good as many citizens had to be ferried to polling stations in military boats.
The Tenang by-election result was already predicted before choosing by casting votes day as good as only the domain of feat was during issue. As such, the engaging points to be made regard the opposite styles, plan as good as approach to by-elections of Malaysia's identical tiwn bloc system: UMNO obviously optimised upon the plan of regulating the thriving resources as good as electoral machinery with good effect, whilst PAS floundered underneath the weight of Umno's corner of state resources.
The by-election outcomes beg the subject of what is animating governing body upon the belligerent currently as good as here is where you could spin to the new Umno public for the small pointers. (BN went upon to win the final dual by-elections upon March 6, 2011 in Malacca, namely, in the state seats of Merlimau as good as Kerdau, previously reason by UMNO. The Electoral Commission ruled in Apr 2011 which they would be no serve by-elections as three years had gone by given the final election.)
A substantial volume of time as good as ardour was clinging by member to pillorying as good as mocking PAS for the incapacity of fulfilling the promise of an Islamic state as good as watering down the agenda to which of the negara berkebajikan (welfare state) because of the objection of the alliance partner DAP. Thus UMNO continues to aim PAS as the main opponent. The delegate from Perlis, the eremite scholar, Fathul Bari, played dual video clips of the new PAS convention, display PAS spiritual personality Nik Aziz heading the request job for UMNO's destruction as good as allegedly dubbing UMNO members as murtad (apostates). The UMNO member jeered loudly, apparently scandalised by Tok Guru's venom for the party.
But herein additionally lies UMNO's Achilles heel; constituted ori! ginally as basically the secularist domestic party, it has increasingly been forced to meet the plea of PAS's Islamist governing body as good as so distant it has fared rather poorly. The some-more eremite Muslims who await PAS consider UMNO's attempts to be ersatz.
The contestation of UMNO with PAS upon the Islamic turf has to be accepted in the context of PAS's relentless critique of UMNO as the corrupt, unethical celebration as good as the single incapable of implementing Islamic values as good as policies. UMNO's riposte has been merely to up the ante upon the own Islamic credentials. All UMNO Prime Ministers given Mahathir have attempted to implement the horde of Islamisation policies, recruited eremite scholars as good as proponents in to the party, as good as have termed Malaysia an "Islamic state".
Under Najib, the supervision has introduced the idea of wasatiyyah (moderation) which lay away alia accepts the participation of alternative faiths though without putting them upon standard with Islam. Najib in speeches before as good as during this public plainly deserted the notions of "liberalism" as good as "religious pluralism". Delegates during the public attacked PAS for supporting LGBT (Lesbian-Gay-Bisexual-Transgender) rights as good as pointed to PAS's await of Bersih chairperson Ambiga Sreenevasan as justification of this. (Ambiga, additionally the former Bar Council President, was slotted to chair the session to plead LGTB rights in the Seksualiti Merdeka Festival in Nov 2011. The festival was stopped by the government.)
It is of autarchic irony which UMNO, the earlier Malay secularist party, right away postures itself as an Islamist celebration whilst PAS, the commonly accepted Islamist party, has started to take upon some-more progressive agendas as good as stances upon ? la mode issues.
A defensive UMNO
A defensive UMNO has apparently moved over the informed conflict of non-Malays symbolised by the "keris rattling" o! f UMNO Y outh to the some-more frontal fight with the eremite enemy PAS. Put differently, UMNO's polemical turf appears to have shifted the single remove over the engrossment with the idea of Ketuanan Melayu (Malay supremacy).
This said, Malay leverage still reared the conduct as good as remained as an important trope of the 
latest UMNO assembly. It was obviously invoked in the speeches of the women's arch Shahrizat Abdul Jalil (right) as good as Deputy Youth personality Reezal Merican Naina Merican. One spun out the informed threat to non-Malays of the probable recurrence of the May 13 eventuality should UMNO remove the Malay opinion whilst the alternative famously announced which UMNO was the celebration anointed by God.
On the some-more defensive plane, the immature delegate representing the UMNO clubs abroad struck the resonance with all as good as sundry when he started to sing the Biro Tata Negara (BTN) promotion song wailing the surrender of inland lands as good as security to foreign occupiers. (BTN or the National Civics Bureau organises orientation programmes for Malay students as good as polite servants.)
But the cloying part conveyed the subliminal message which UMNO Malays have mislaid steer of the multiracial governing body advocated by the normal leaders such as Tunku Abdul Rahman as good as Tun Abdul Razak. Without doubt, Reezal Merican took secular governing body to the new tall when he implied which the Malays were God's selected people.
Predictably, the UMNO's President opening residence emphasised the crucial impression of the 13th GE for the party's destiny as good as the participation as good as he alluded to the stress of the 2.9 million new voters. Again, this suggests which UMNO is not during all assured which it has prisoner the girl vote.! Indeed, immature people were celebrated by their low attendance during the UMNO General Assembly. Some 10 or so UMNO abroad bar members were visible as good as the Puteri UMNO (young women's wing) was obviously outnumbered by the UMNO makciks as good as pakciks (older folks).Speeches by Puteri member were underwhelming as good as drew small fire.
The President's debate was devoid of new policies as he trotted out the successes of his policies of economic, domestic as good as governmental transformation. There was no mention of how the supervision has addressed the egregious problems of crime as good as crime. He obviously avoided any anxiety to the cyber rumblings which related the initial family to the land deal involving the Ministry of Defence purported by the single Deepak Jaikishan.
Defence Minister Ahmad Zahid (left) additionally demurred responding to the Deepak allegations. (At the point of writing, Deepak, the office worker as good as runner dealer, has sued Selangor UMNO women's personality Raja Ropiaah Abdullah's association Awan Megah for breach of stipulate as good as for allegedly cheating him of millions of ringgit. Awan Megah was awarded the RM100 million privatisation project to set up an intelligence centre by the defence minister, it was alleged. Deepak had additionally intimated which he was obliged for the recanting of the statutory declaration by private questioner P. Balasubramanian which had settled which Najib had the relationship with the murdered Mongolian lady Altantuya Shaariibuu.
Najib's 45-minute final debate supposing hints of the problems afflicting the party. He spoke of finding "winnable candidates", the complaint of "saboteurs" as good as chose to regard in the same breath both ex-premiers Mahathir as good as Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, known to be in opposite UMNO camps. Furt! her cybe r noise from former Inspector-General of Police Musa Hassan which the Home Minister had interfered in his handling of arrests of persons of standing over rapist activities additionally failed to draw any strong reply from Hishammuddin Hussein, the apportion in question. With the goings-on inside as good as outward the party, there were some-more than sufficient suggestions which the celebration was faction-ridden.
More tellingly, certain personalities appeared expected to be forsaken as possibilities in the 
coming GE. It has been common believe for the prolonged time which the UMNO Youth arch Khairy Jamaluddin (left), Abdullah's son-in-law, might not be selected to urge his Rembau seat because of purported blocking by Mahathir, who would similar to to see his own son Mukhriz climb in the celebration hierarchy. There have additionally been continuous rumours circulating which Deputy President Muhyiddin Yassin was "plotting" for the boss himself to under-perform in the GE, whilst Najib's cousin, vice-president Hishammuddin, awaits the leg-up to the next turn should Muhyiddin falter.
Conclusion
As the 66th UMNO General public resolved as good as the imminent 13th ubiquitous choosing looms large, Malaysia's de facto statute celebration might not be means to find the means to check the path-dependent decline. After some-more than 5 decades of forlorn success in helming Malaysia save for the hiccup in 1969, it right away faces the prospect of the probable detriment of control of the sovereign supervision following the disastrous electoral result of 2008.
Path-dependent decrease has even been some-more clear in the bloc partners, the MCA as good as Gerakan, dual Chinese-based parties which have mislaid their chronological value to the DAP. Leadership problems as good as haemorrhaging in the MIC h! as meant the splintering of the Indian opinion often mopped up by the Opposition front. Other bloc partners in Sabah as good as Sarawak have fared most improved up till right away though the small decrease is clear in final year's state choosing in Sarawak as good as in new celebration defections in Sabah.
UMNO itself faces the climb of an rare series of immature as good as some-more urbanised citizens who have small ardour for neither the old-style secular governing body nor the relief Islamism. Furthermore, factionalism inside of the celebration care notwithstanding an outward uncover of oneness is bound to start the efficacy in securing desired electoral outcomes. aliran.com
* Dr Johan Saravanamuttu, the long-time Aliran contributor as good as former Aliran trustee, is currently Senior Visiting Research Fellow during the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore. www.themalaysianinsider.com
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