Three possible outcomes seen

Michael Yeoh Oon Kheng, The Sun

THEgeneral choosing date has been a subject of speculation for roughly a year as great as it is right away approaching to be held upon Apr 14 or 21. There have been three probable outcomes for a election: Scenario 1: The standing quo remains; Scenario 2: A reduced infancy for a BN; as great as Scenario 3: BN regains two-thirds infancy in Parliament.

There have been 222 parliamentary seats in a country, of which, about 150 have been Malay/bumiputra seats, 30 mixed as great as 42 Chinese majority. In a 2008 election, a BN won 140 seats as great as a Opposition 82 seats. Umno won 79 seats, MCA 15 seats, MIC 3 as great as Gerakan 2. PKR won 31 seats, DAP 28 as great as PAS 23.

From a analysis, it is transparent which a farming population has mostly returned to BN, in sold a farming Malays. Umno is approaching to win some-more seats than in 2008. It is approaching which it might win 85 to 90 parliamentary seats. There is additionally a transparent direction which Indian electorate in farming as great as semi-urban areas have shifted behind to BN.

However, a civic electorate have been mostly still with a Opposition. Even if some-more civic Malays were to await Pakatan, it will not enlarge Pakatan's seats as these civic seats have been already held by DAP.
The civic Chinese await for DAP is strong, as great as as high as 85% of civic Chinese might opinion for it. This will enlarge DAP's seats from in in between 35 as great as 40, up from a 28 it won in 2008.

The prime minister's hope is which his overdo programmes to a Chinese village can win over a little of a uncertain Chinese electorate though which is still a difficult challenge. Most Chinese electorate appear to have done up their minds. Some comparison Chinese as great as a Chinese comme! rcial op eration village might wish to give Najib a chance. They worth peace, fortitude as great as prosperity.

In a investigate upon a main concerns of a Chinese village organised by ASLI's Centre for Public Policy Studies, it was dynamic which a main issues were those of crime as great as corruption, education, cost of living, fairness as great as justice, religious issues, lack of polite service appearance as great as lack of meritocracy. These have caused frustrations among a Chinese voters.

However if a Malay as great as Indian electorate pitch behind to BN is strong, it will assistance MCA as great as Gerakan in a mixed seats where Malay electorate account for some-more than 40% of constituents as great as Indian electorate in in between 10% as great as 15%.

Many uncertain electorate will wish to see who a possibilities have been as great as how a debate unfolds. A gaffe or a mistake can be costly during a debate period.

Datuk Seri Najib Razak will debate from a in front of of strength. His popularity, celebrity as great as hard work can win him a lot of support. Obviously, he is some-more popular than his party. His proven track jot down in a transformation programmes as great as mercantile opening with a 6.4% GDP expansion in a 4th entertain of 2012 puts him as great as a BN supervision in great stead.

On a alternative hand, there is a little civic dissatisfaction over abuse of power, human rights violations, crime as great as corruption.

In Sarawak, Tan Sri Taib Mahmud will deliver 100% of his PBB seats to a BN as great as as a result secure a infancy in a state. However, a PRS (Parti Rakyat Sarawak) as great as SPDP (Sarawak Progressive Democratic Party) might remove a couple of Dayak seats to PKR.

The SUPP will come under clever plea from a DAP as great as could remove all a Chinese infancy seats though win behind Sibu with a brand brand new claimant as great as keep a Dayak chair of a emissary president,! Datuk R ichard Riot as a result winning dual out of a 6 parliamentary seats.

In Sabah, Umno should be means to do well, leading a BN to regain control of a state government. DAP will win in several some-more Chinese-majority seats.

In Peninsular Malaysia, a MCA seats which will see tough fights have been Gelang Patah, Kulai as great as Tanjung Piai in Johor, as great as Lumut in Perak. These seats have been vulnerable. On a alternative hand, MCA has a great possibility of winning behind Padang Serai, Gopeng as great as Selayang should there be a clever Malay as great as Indian pitch behind to BN.

In a state contest, Pakatan should keep Kelantan as great as Penang though will face a clever plea from BN. In Penang, if a Malay pitch is strong, Umno might win seventeen Malay seats, as great as if MCA as great as Gerakan can win only 4 some-more seats, BN will regain Penang with a slight margin. The fight for Selangor will be a toughest as great as it is 50:50 for either side.

BN should win Kedah as great as Perak where a Malay pitch behind to Umno could assistance them win behind a little PKR as great as PAS seats in Perak nonetheless a DAP will approaching hold upon to all a Chinese-majority seats in Perak.

According to a final analysis, BN will win a 13th ubiquitous election. Only a size of a infancy remains uncertain. BN is approaching to win in in between 123 as great as 135 seats. This is a most approaching outcome.

However, if a Malay as great as Indian electorate pitch behind to BN is clever as great as Najib is means to bring behind some-more uncertain Chinese, afterwards BN can win up to 150 seats which will revive BN's two-thirds majority. The third scenario is which BN retains about a same number of seats around 140 it won in 2008.

Nevertheless what can be certain is which a dual big winners in a choosing will be Umno as great as a DAP.

What is additionally critical to consider is a figure ! of a pos t-GE13 government. Will there be a brand brand new political realignment? Will Umno find a brand brand new alliance with PAS for Malay as great as Muslim unity, as great as how will this stroke a non-Malays as great as non-Muslims? Will a dual big approaching winners (Umno as great as DAP) find a brand brand new political realignment?

Nothing is impossible. After all, there have been no permanent friends or permanent enemies in politics. These have been a sort of post-election scenarios which need to be deliberate too.

Tan Sri Michael Yeoh Oon Kheng is CEO of ASLI as great as emissary authority of a Centre for Public Policy Studies. Read More @ Source

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