Misuse of population projections: Stateless Indians in Malaysia


Written by Datuk R. Chander, CPIAsiaFriday, 08 June 2012 12:58
Commentary
letterDr Paraman Subramaniam has responded during good length tomy note of May 7th. He has reasserted which there have been 450,000 stateless Indians in a nation during this indicate in time. While acknowledging which there is a need to undertake deeper research by regulating a race census formula as well as stream race census interpretation confirmed by a Department of Statistics as per my suggestion in a progressing note, he continues to rest upon a proceed adopted by Hindraf in arriving during their guess of 450,000 stateless persons of Indian origin. He creates several points which require a response.

It will be recalled which a Hindraf calculations, which Dr Paraman subscribes to as well as defends, start by regulating a 20-year race projections published by a Department of Statistics in 1974. These projections have been compared with a outcome of a 1991 Census of Population. Hindraf then uses a disproportion (a shortfall in a box of a projections for Indians) to paint a series which is deemed stateless. This series is then extrapolated to a present to acquire a guess of 450,000.

Dr Paraman pointedly raises a emanate as to how a projected numbers were tighten to a 1991 Census counts for Malays as well as Chinese though not so in a box of Indians. He goes upon to disapprove me for not responding to this divergence in outcomes in in between a estimates for a different ethnic groups. He fails to appreciate which a demographic patterns for a three communities differed over a duration from 1970 to 1990. The trends for a Indian component of a race differed some-more sharply from a insincere rates embodied! in a pr ojections. There was as such no "error" in a projections for Indians.

Dr Paraman ap! pears no t to have understood a inlet of race projections as well as their limitations. The projections rebuilt in 1974 followed international most appropriate practice as well as a methods recommended by a United Nations Population Division in its manuals1.Zero emigration was insincere as there was no real basement to have picturesque assumptions; in being there was emigration over a 20-year period. Thus a numbers shown by a projections have been not allied to a race counts shown by subsequent censuses.

A succinct description of a inlet of race projections is supposing upon a site of Statistics New Zealand, a inhabitant statistical agency2of New Zealand:
"Nature of projections
Demographic projections have been written to encounter both short-term as well as long-term planning needs, though have been not written to be expect forecasts or to plan specific annual variation. These projections have been based upon assumptions done about destiny fertility, mortality, as well as emigration patterns of a population. Although a assumptions have been carefully formulated to paint destiny trends, they have been subject to uncertainty. Therefore, a projections should be used as discipline as well as an indication of a altogether trend, rather than as expect forecasts."


The same website creates a serve indicate which projections have been conjunction predictions nor forecasts. They provide an indication of possible destiny changes in a size, expansion rate, as well as age-sex structure of a race ..
there is no faith which any of a assumptions will be realized. (Emphasis added).

If serve clarity is needed, we impute Dr Paraman to a Report of a Technical Group upon Population Projections Constituted by a National Commission upon Population3 released by a Registrar General, Government of India, which do! ne a fol lowing comment:

"Summary of findings
Population projection is a systematic attempt to sight in to a destiny race scenario, conditioned by creation sure assumptions, regulating interpretation relating to a past accessible during which indicate of time. Assumptions used as well as their luck of adhering in future, forms a vicious submit in this mathematical effort. Predicting a destiny course of tellurian fertility as well as mankind is not easy, especially when seeking beyond in time as medical as well as health involvement strategies, food prolongation as well as its estimable availability, climatic variability, socio-cultural setting, politico mercantile conditions as well as a host of other factors change race dynamics, creation it formidable to envision a expansion with certainty. Therefore, caution must be exercised whilst creation or regulating a race projections in a context of assorted conditions imposed."


It should be patently clear which a proceed used by Hindraf, as well as advocated as well as defended by Dr Paraman, does not take of these aspects; thus a calculations leading to a guess 450,000 do not stand up to scrutiny. There is a clarity of double danger in which not usually is it inapt to make use of a Population Projections in a manner used by Hindraf in this sold instance, though a error is serve compounded by then taking a base figure (the disproportion in in between a projections as well as a tangible 1991 Census count) as well as extrapolating it to 2011 or 2012.

Dr Paraman has included in his note a range of other demographic indicators as well as tables for a duration until 1984. These have been as if taken from Professor Saw Swee Hock's book.

Two points can be made. Firstly, it is distant from clear how these census interpretation have been linked to a Hindraf estimates. Secondly, it is obscure why Dr Paraman stops in a year 1984. He could have easily updated these tables by accessing published ! reports released by a Department of Statistics. The box he attempts to have would be some-more convincing were he to make use of updated numbers from a Censuses of 1991, 2000, 2010 as well as a annually published demographic statistics. Thus far, to a most appropriate of my knowledge, conjunction Hindraf nor Dr Paraman appear to have taken this path.

Dr Paraman goes upon to cite assorted estimates of a stateless. He quotes Anwar Ibrahim's anxiety to a figure of slightest 300,000 stateless Indians. It would indeed be enchanting to establish a basement for this series or is this a re-cycled Hindraf estimate?

He then goes upon to impute to a statement by Senator Dr. S. Ramakrishnan which there were 55,758 Malaysian-born red card temperament holders in a country. Dr Paraman's guess is which a high percentage of these have been likely to be Indians. He creates a indicate which there have been a serve 21,456 from India who also hold red temperament cards. He highlighted which a National Registration Department (NRD) recently disclosed which there have been 43,! 000 Indi ans, innate in Malaysia, who have not applied for their MyKad.

Two points emerge. None of a numbers cited have been even tighten to a figure of 450,000 used by Hindraf as well as Dr Paraman. Second, Dr Paraman gives no indication of his stand in respect of these numbers nor does he attempt a settlement in in between these numbers as well as a figure of 450,000.

The means of a stateless race is sick served by make use of of numbers which have been based upon forged calculations which have little substructure though rest upon assumptions as well as notions of conspiracies. The means would be distant better served by enchanting in a severe hearing of all accessible interpretation as well as substantiating a truth. Respectfully, we have nonetheless to have an indication which Dr Paraman is peaceful to take a lead in enchanting in such a task. we repeat my progressing call for a consummate as well as severe hearing of all of a! interpr etation which exists.

The writer is former Chief Statistician of Malaysia
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