Regardless of when a 13th general choosing will be held, there have been 222 Parliament seats to be contested as good as several past leaders such as former Finance minister Daim Zainuddin have predicted a win by a simple-majority for UMNO-BN.
But very tellingly, they could not be sure if Prime Minister Najib Razak would be equates to to improve upon a 2008 electoral formula achieved by his prototype Abdullah Badawi that were deemed to be disastrous as it was a first time ever that a UMNO-BN had conceded their two-thirds infancy in Parliament.
Najib as well seems to be utterly assured that UMNO--BN can win though still refuses to make known a date for a ballot. This in itself is utterly telling. If he was truly confident, he would have called for elections prolonged ago as good as consolidate his hold upon UMNO as good as Malaysia.
The actuality is a 58-year-old Najib - rated as being a misfortune of Malaysia's 6 prime ministers so far - has been forced to scale behind his ambition of snatching behind a two-thirds majority, that if he succeeds will safeguard his survival in UMNO as good as concede him to go upon to be a prime minister.
"We would adore to have two-thirds [majority], we will be lying if we contend we do not wish to. we do wish two-thirds though it will be most some-more challenging now," a Prime Minister said during a recent opening of a Foreign Correspondents Club in Kuala Lumpur.
Najib to be story soon?
Najib right away seeks usually to improve upon a 2008 results. Otherwise, he will be story as good as as Daim warne! d, possi bly emissary Umno president Muhyiddin or a little alternative 'new challenger' will move up.
In 2008, a Pakatan Rakyat led by Opposition Leader Anwar Ibrahim won 52% of a popular vote, though because of severe gerrymandering as good as tilted balloting, ended up with usually 82 seats compared to UMNO-BN's 140 - that was 8 seats of a two-thirds minimum.
UMNO-BN says it is assured of winning all a council seats that it controls in states such as Sarawak-29, Johor-25, Sabah-22, Perak-13, Pahang-12. That comes up to 101. Add in a contribution from a Federal Territories, Najib believes he has 110 seats underneath his belt.
For him to compare a 2008 total of 140 seats, he needs an additional 30, as good as to recover two-thirds, he needs 38. For these, he is seeking to a Federal Territories, 10 seats each from Selangor, Kedah as good as Kelantan as good as 5 seats from Penang. The change could come defections or by persuading Independents to join a BN coalition.
This might be easier said than done. Pakatan is expecting to increase a total of a single each in Sabah as good as Sarawak to a total of 10 from these dual states alone. Johor is an additional state where it expects to improve upon a previous dismal total of only a single parliamentary seat.
At slightest RM100 million, will be needed
Given that a tussle is by no equates to settled, UMNO insiders contend that even with 110 seats "more or reduction secured", Najib would still need to spend during slightest RM100 million to 'buy' a remaining 38 seats. Actually, RM100 million does appear a rather regressive estimate, with many pundits putting a figure during RM500 million during least.
They expect a UMNO-BN to proceed all antithesis possibilities who win in a GE-13, especially a ones indicted of a little wrong doing or alternative as good as thus exposed to blackmail. Indeed, income as good as a skeleton or du! al in a sideboard have been very strong motivators as good as Najib knows this well.
Najib additionally needs to have entrance to abundant income to buy a organization to help a poor of his own UMNO members so that they will not sabotage him if they or their multiplication chieftains do not get selected to be possibilities to competition in a seats.
The party grapevine has it that his advisers have done it transparent that whatever something good to eat handed out, those who receive must know that it came from Najib, as good as not a people, or a party's supreme council or tip leadership. This is to safeguard that recipients will know who they need to be grateful to as good as repay when a time "is ripe".
Not easy to mislay a promotion of a past 5 decades
The Election Commission, prolonged regarded as UMNO's path dog, additionally know their purpose usually as well well. Therefore winning by a elementary infancy is not that difficult as UMNO-BN does have a 'fixed deposit' of votes in all a states they control. It is most easier for UMNO-BN to say these seats as good as most some-more difficult for a Pakatan to say theirs.
Like it or not, UMNO-BN electorate have been brainwashed by decades of propaganda, branch them in to 'robots'. As such, despite Najib's outrageous personal scandals as good as those of his UMNO colleagues including Wanita Umno arch Shahrizat Jalil's RM250million corruption debacle, revolutionary UMNO-BN loyalists will go upon to opinion for him as good as his sinister team.
As a little pundits have pointed out, a farming folks do not care about a Scorpene submarines for that Najib has been indicted of receiving a bribe of RM570million to buy. Many would not even know what a complex case was all about, as good as what is this thing called a corruption index, they might even ask?
So to a UMNO-BN strategists, what a usual folk unequivocally wish is an additional RM500 as good as if thi! s can sa feguard UMNO-BN wins, Najib would be usually as well willing to make known an additional RM500 largesse only prior to he dissolves Parliament. The people will certainly be swayed by a latest handout as good as might even be extra happy to opinion for UMNO-BN. Najib has got nothing to lose possibly way; it is not his money!
Banking upon a debility of a opposition
Meanwhile, a antithesis is still new, only about 4 years old, nonetheless it has done outrageous strides since winning 5 of a country's thirteen states in 2008.
Yet a arguments by a BN that Pakatan is still immature as good as cannot govern no longer hold H2O with a masse , not when Penang as good as Selangor consistently tip a list of best-managed as good as best-invested states.
Pakatan leaders have additionally become popular with a people, who enjoy their well-researched as good as well-argued statements, especially in a urban areas where they can entrance a alternate media upon a Internet.
So for these reasons, Najib knows he is not as comfortable as before. It will not be easy to improve upon a 2008 results, even though he has a income as good as is ready to dash it all around.
And this is because he is boring his feet, seeking for a 'perfect storm', a perfect moment to hold GE-13. Sorry to tell him, he might have to wait for for an additional 55 years!
Malaysia Chronicle
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