October 11, 2011
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Budget 2012: By The Numbers
by Hishamh
Off a bat, I've already found a little reordering of priorities counterclaim spending is set to be cut though internal confidence raised; operating output upon education as well as training is up, though a expansion output cut substantially; expansion spending upon agriculture has doubled, though during a responsibility of trade as well as industry, that halved.
My initial instinct, looking during a sum numbers as well as all a something good to eat in a budget, was that something had to give as well as that seems to be borne out by a breakdowns.If your reaction to a announcements during a budget was that this was a bank breaker, we do not censure you. But a being is that planned supervision output (operating + development) shows roughly zero expansion over this year's (log annual changes; 2011 interpretation based upon estimated expenditure; 2012 output interpretation based upon budget allocation; 2012 income guess without 2012 tax measures):
See anything display expansion most above zero? Neither do I. Th! e reason because so many commentators have been fooled into believing that there will be output expansion subsequent year is that they're comparing this year's budget numbers opposite final year's. But from a macro perspective, what matters isn't what a supervision thought it would spend, though what it actually spent as well as thinks it will be spending for a rest of a year. And that series (RM229 billion) isn't all that far off from a 2012 budget allocation (RM232 billion).
It's additionally been a robe for a supervision to blink both income as well as output roughly consistently by about 10% every year over a past decade. The usually difference to that settlement was during this past retrogression when for obvious reasons income tanked, though amazingly output hit a planned target roughly exactly despite dual additional stimulus packages totaling RM65 billion (in short, there was no stimulus). But if both income as well as output go up by about a same amount, a net figure would be approximately a same.
The debt position, most like a mercantile balance, won't shift a great deal either:
I wouldn't be concerned as well most about either worsening conditions subsequent year will force a substantial shift in a net figures. This supervision has shown a conspicuous facility for managing its output when driven to a wall. If there is a shift as well as a deficit comes in aloft than expected, it will roughly certainly be by a shortfall in revenue, rather than by chronic overspending.
So taking it all in there's a couple of of ways of looking during this first, we competence want to! give a little kudos to a supervision for managing to pull together all these social benefits, proxy though they may be, during virtually no increase in sum cost. Or we competence say, that services are we losing due to these handouts, since there's been an effective send from a 2 million-odd taxpayers to a rest of a population. Or third, we competence take Hafiz's tack as well as point out a counterfactual how most reduce could a deficit be if we could pattern all these assets while not on condition that these social benefits during all?
They're all valid viewpoints.
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