OCT eighteen Nassim Taleb's bestseller "The Black Swan" talks about the universe made by rarely extraordinary events. He argues that many of what that you take for postulated after the eventuality was considered unfit before the event.
We know swans have been white as well as that acquired usual sense mostly stops us from realising that there have been black swans too. We have been not since to being counter-intuitive.
As you simulate upon universe politics towards the end of 2011, you see that the landscape right away has altered beyond approval when compared to how it was in the beginning of the year. And those changes have been permanent, irrevocable as well as will continue to redefine the universe in the years to come.
No one approaching an Arab Spring to happen. Likewise, the electoral swing to the antithesis in Singapore, the riots upon the streets of London, the Anna Hazare anti-corruption debate in India, the Camila Vallejo propagandize fees criticism that repelled the Chilean investiture as well as right away the Occupy Wall Street transformation were not expected at the beginning of the year.
In the years to come, the universe will recollect 2011 as it does 1968 as well as 1989. The year 1968 saw the climax of the anti-Vietnam War criticism that sparked worldwide anti-establishment movements. In 1989, the fall of the comrade bloc was perhaps the many unexpected philharmonic of the century.
As in 1968 as well as 1989, the existing universe domestic as well as mercantile orders have been exploding in 2011, but as yet, no brand brand brand new balance has been found.
While you can't tell whether the black swan will soon visit Malaysia or not, the country is exhibiting outrageous as well as glaring economic, domestic as well as demographic contradictions.
Economically, 60 per cent of the race earns the domicile income of reduction than RM3,000 per month. The bottom 40 per cent live upon the domicile income of reduction than RM1,500 per mon! th, with the presumably favoured Bumiputeras constituting as most as two-thirds of this category.
It is no doubt true that low-income groups can tarry in overpower if as well as when the mercantile cake is steadily growing. But when inflation suddenly kicks in just when expansion slows, afterwards the nervous balance cannot be maintained.
In the rural setting, as long as the weather permits, many live upon the semi-subsistent existence by growing food as well as rearing livestock. But civic dwellers from low -and middle-income families have nowhere to go when times have been bad.
This is the serious challenge in the country where expansion is slowing as well as state genius is weak. The civic suit of the race in Malaysia was estimated by the World Bank at 70.36 per cent in 2008, up from 35 per cent in 1980.
This cooking into the credit of the ruling parties. For civic dwellers, who right away have access to Facebook as well as alternative amicable media, sources of information have been multiple as well as not easily controlled by the government. And daily encounters with investiture cronies flash their resources further erode Umno's explain to being Malay champions.
Umno continues to tarry electorally thanks to obvious gerrymandering as well as massive mal-apportionment of constituencies. Sixty-five per cent of the seats have been in rural areas. For instance, the chair of Kapar right away reports the voting race of 122,011 (Q1, 2011; 104,185 in the 2008 ubiquitous election) whilst Umno seats have an normal of 49,429 electorate (in the 2008 ubiquitous election).
Through utilizing the electoral system, Umno has amplified the significance of the "fixed deposit" voter groups, including Umno members, polite servants, police, military personnel, Felda settlers as well as Bumiputeras from Sabah as well as Sarawak.
In essence, Umno is the narrowly-based vested interest party. In the 2008 ubiquitous election, 10.6 million were purebred to vote, of whom close to 2.45 mill! ion did not worry to turn up to vote. Barisan Nasional perceived 51.4 per cent of the popular votes whilst the antithesis as the whole garnered 48.6 per cent of the votes.
According to the Election Commission, as of August 2011 Malaysia has 15.98 million citizens above the age of 21 but, as of Jun 2011, those who have purebred have been only 12.27 million. Twenty-three per cent or some 3.7 million have as yet not claimed their right to vote.
The black swan might come in the form of the two million first-time electorate in the subsequent ubiquitous choosing 130,000 (estimated), 276,621(Election Commission figure) as well as 851,260 (Election Commission figure) were purebred in 2008, 2009 as well as 2010 respectively. Another 900,000 brand brand brand new electorate have been estimated to be purebred in 2011.
Admittedly, the series of problematic registrations between the brand brand brand new voters, such as the ongoing foreign-worker-turned-citizen-turned-voter scam, might be substantial as well as if they have been concentrated in Pakatan extrinsic seats, the balance might tip in Barisan Nasional's favour. The PAS's experience in Terengganu in 2004 is the box in point.
Nevertheless, genuine electorate will substantially still distant transcend phantom voters.
Typically brand brand brand new electorate have been urban-based as well as young, with somewhat some-more being Malays than non-Malays. Fifty per cent of Malaysia's race have been next 25 years of age whilst scarcely 70 per cent have been next 40. This is specially an Arab Spring-type demography.
It is clear that Budget 2012 did not address the mercantile gap as well as provides no devise for those next 40 years of age. Politically, the proposed tweaking of confidence laws lags distant behind an ever-rising expectancy for the some-more approved society.
These economic, domestic as well as demographic contradictions reason the potential of springing the black swan upon Malaysia.
* The views expre! ssed her e have been the personal opinion of the columnist.
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