The Malaysian electorate have been a really generous lot during a honeymoon duration (like 1955, 1964, 1974, 1978 as good as 1982) though will retaliate a statute celebration when there is inner struggle (like 1969, 1990 as good as 1999). So, when Malaya saw independence, when Malaysia was formed, when Malaysia had a brand brand new Prime Minister as good as a Prime Minister was still in his honeymoon period, etc., a statute celebration would do well. When a statute celebration is confronting inner struggle or a honeymoon was over, it suffers.
THE CORRIDORS OF POWER
Raja Petra Kamarudin
In 1955, during a initial municipal elections to be reason in Malaya, a Alliance Party won all though a single of a 54 seats contested. This was due to a Merdekaeuphoria.
In 1957, Malaya gained autonomy or Merdeka.
In 1959, dual years AFTER Merdeka, during a initial parliamentary elections to be reason in Malaya, a Alliance Party won usually 74 of a 104 seats as good as 52% of a renouned votes. The statute celebration mislaid thirty seats since dual years BEFOREMerdeka it mislaid usually one.
In 1963, Malaysia was formed, as good as in 1964 a Alliance Party recovered. The statute celebration won 89 of a 104 seats contested as good as roughly 59% of a renouned votes.
In 1969, a Alliance managed usually 95 of a 144 seats. The renouned votes additionally forsaken to below 50%. The Prime Minister, Tunku Abdul Rahman, was forced to renounce shortly after that.
In 1974, shortly after Barisan Nasional was formed, a statute celebration won 135 of a 154 seats. The renouned votes additionally increased to roughly 61%. But this time it was underneath a brand brand new Prime Minister, Tun Abdul Razak -- a second Prime Minister of Malaysia.
In 1978, a statute celebration won! usually 130 of a 154 seats contested. The renouned votes forsaken to roughly 57%. This was underneath a third Prime Minister, Tun Hussein Onn, who had taken over mor! e than a year progressing (he waited too long to reason a election).
In 1982, a statute celebration won 132 of a 154 seats as good as roughly 61% of a renouned votes. This was additionally underneath a brand brand new Prime Minister, Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad -- a Fourth Prime Minister of Malaysia, who took over usually a couple of months prior to a elections.
In 1986, a statute partys opening declined slightly. It won usually 148 of a 177 contested as good as less than 56% of a votes.
In 1990, a choosing reason after a Umno predicament -- which resulted in a separate into Umno Baru as good as Semangat 46 -- a statute partys opening declined serve to 127 of a 180 seats as good as about 53% of a renouned votes.
In 1995, a statute celebration recovered as good as won 162 of a 192 seats as good as roughly 65% of a renouned votes, partly because a antithesis was in chaos. Semangat 46 sealed down shortly after which as good as many of a leaders/members rejoined Umno.
In 1999 (due to another separate in Umno as good as a arrangement of Parti Keadilan Nasional) a statute partys opening declined to 148 of a 193 seats as good as usually 56% of a renouned votes.
In 2004, a statute celebration recovered as good as won 198 of a 219 seats as good as some-more than 64% of a renouned votes. This was underneath a brand brand new Prime Minister, Tun Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, who took over usually a couple of months prior to a election.
In 2008, a statute celebration won usually 140 of a 222 seats as good as usually 52% of a renouned votes. Tun Abdullah was forced to renounce shortly after that.
The Malaysian electorate have been really a generous lot during a honeymoon duration (like 1955, 1964, 1974, 1978 as good as 1982) though will retaliate a statute celebration when there is inner struggle (like 1969, 1990 as good ! as 1999) . So, when Malaya saw independence, when Malaysia was formed, when Malaysia had a brand brand new Prime Minister as good as a Prime Minister was still in his honeymoon period, etc., a statute celebration would do well. When a statute celebration is confronting inner struggle or a honeymoon was over, it suffers.
Najib Tun Razak took over in 2009, some-more than dual years ago. He shou! ld have called for a ubiquitous choosing whilst he was still enjoying his honeymoon similar to what Tun Razak Hussein, Tun Hussein Onn, Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad as good as Tun Abdullah Ahmad Badawi did.
Now, a honeymoon is over. People do not love Najib as most as they did when he initial took over as Prime Minister behind in 2009. And, as a statistics above have shown, once a honeymoon is over, you no longer get a peoples support.
Najib would have done improved if he had called for a 13th General Election behind in 2010. If he waits till 2012 or 2013, he is going to humour (by then he would have been PM for 3 or four years respectively). And a longer he waits a worse it will be for him.
For a opposition, it is improved which a ubiquitous choosing is called later rsther than than sooner. In fact, if a choosing is reason now, it will be a 50:50 situation. Both a antithesis as good as a statute celebration will face an ascending task.
Back in 2010, a antithesis would not have performed so well. The statute celebration would have been able to recover some ground it mislaid in 2008. In 2012 or 2013, a antithesis will be able to perform better.
So, time is on a side of a antithesis as good as a longer a time, a better. Time is not in Najibs favour as good as a longer a time, a worse it is for him.
That is what a statistics show as good as statistics do not lie.
** Sabah as good as Sarawak not part of a Federation yet
No comments:
Post a Comment