THE CORRIDORS OF POWER
Raja Petra Kamarudin
C O N F we D E N T we A L KUALA LUMPUR 000705
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/18/2016
TAGS: PREL, MASS, MARR, PTER, ECON, MY
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR UNDER SECRETARY OF THE AIR FORCE DR. RONALD SEGA
Classified By: DCM David B. Shear for reasons 1.4 b as well as d.
1. (C) SUMMARY: Malaysian-American family have been great as well as improving; upon Mar 8 you told Congress of a intention to interpretation a Free Trade Agreement with Malaysia. This moderate Muslim-majority state is a tenth-largest trade partner worldwide, as well as you have strong military-military cooperation. While relocating solemnly divided from a anti-Western tongue of former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, Malaysia continues to oppose us upon a small key ubiquitous issues.
Counterterrorism cooperation is mostly good, though you sojourn endangered about a release of certain suspects as well as a turn of notice of those suspects. Malaysia as! well as a neighbors increasingly comprehend a importance of nautical security, though enforcement efforts have been hampered by sovereignty concerns as well as a lack of resources. A brand brand brand new Malaysian seashore safeguard is solemnly getting a sea legs. Malaysia supports a Mindanao assent talks though has differed sharply with Thailand over separatist violence. The Malaysian supervision is creation swell in implementing a non-proliferation regime, though is no closer to signing an Article 98 agreement with a U.S.
End Summary.
Political Landscape
2. (C) While Malaysia has plenty of warts, it stays a rare e.g. of an Islamic-majority republic which is stable, civilian-led as well as prosperous. Malaysia has additionally maintained a mostly passive social complement as well as a tightly managed democracy, with a same multi-racial bloc in energy given independence in 1957. While you go upon to titillate a supervision of Malaysia to improve a own governance, you additionally recognize a helpful purpose Malaysia can fool around in a Islamic world as well as have speedy Malaysians to increase await for mediation as well as swell in a Middle East.
3. (C) Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi is a exhale of uninformed air after a long-serving as well as vituperative Mahathir Mohamad, who retired in late 2003. Abdullah promotes a tolerant, progressive proceed to sacrament which he calls "Islam Hadhari" (civilizational Islam). He is publicly committed to fighting crime as well as reining in dear mega-projects, yet his government's follow-through has been disappointing. His mild-mannered as well as discreet proceed has additionally led critics to subject his care as well as effectiveness, though his statute bloc stays secure.
Abdullah's arch potential rival, Deputy Prime Minister (and Defense Minister) Najib Razak, plays a purpose of a constant bulwark. After dual years in power, Abdullah has appealed to a open for calm in delivering reform. As prolonged ! as a eco nomy continues to grow healthily, a open will grant him that.
Economic Situation
4. (C) In his early days, PM Abdullah done rural development as well as carry out of supervision spending, partly as a equates to to inspire in isolation section led growth, his tip mercantile priorities. So far, usually his reduction of a government's necessity -- now down to 3.8 percent of GDP -- can be chalked up as a transparent success.
Abdullah's partisans contend which a Ninth Malaysia Plan (9MP; a 5 year plan for mercantile process as well as development spending) will be a vehicle for advancing his alternative mercantile goals, though a 9MP, unveiled upon Mar 31, contained small in a way of play or brand brand brand new initiatives. Abdullah has emphasized a need for fast doing of 9MP (a tacit acknowledgement of a perceptions weak follow through by his government) as well as created a brand brand brand new supervision group to focus upon a problem.
5. (C) Meanwhile cuts in supervision subsidies for gasoline as well as diesel fuel -- a single of a collection used to rein in a necessity -- have proved rarely unpopular, as well as lifted concerns about inflation. Increases in prices of alternative government-managed commodities, such as electricity, might be in a works.
For now, a economy is in reasonably great shape, with projected expansion of around 5.0 percent in 2005 as well as central acceleration of around 3.8 percent (although in isolation analysts hold a real rate of price increases is most higher). However, a supervision might be confronting a tough preference in a entrance year in in in in between sensitive a economy to get behind upon a aloft expansion track, or raising interest rates to carry out inflation.
Malaysia's International Posture
6. (C) Malaysia currently is a chair of a Non-Aligned Movement (NAM), a Organization of a Islamic Conference (OIC) as well as of ASEAN. Malaysia hosted a ASEAN Summit as well as a East Mid! dle East Summit final December, as well as will horde a ASEAN Regional Forum ministerial this summer.
Secretary of State Rice has told a ASEAN unfamiliar ministers of her plans to attend a ARF meetings in July. Malaysia backs a six-party DPRK arch talks as well as supports Iraqi reconstruction efforts, though has been overeager to acquire Hamas as well as titillate a Iranian arch program. The unfamiliar method seems to be relocating solemnly divided from a small of Mahathir's anti-Western tongue as well as policies, though retains friendships with troublesome states similar to Cuba, Zimbabwe, Sudan, Syria as well as Uzbekistan.
The Malaysian supervision is publicly understanding of China's "peaceful rise" as well as not long ago sealed a invulnerability cooperation MOU with China, notwithstanding lingering suspicions in in in between comparison Malaysian troops officials of China's long-term intentions. Malaysia has actively upheld assent efforts in a southern Philippines as well as Aceh in Indonesia.
Counterterrorism
7. (C) Malaysia has in all been a reliable as well as helpful partner upon counterterrorism. In 2003, Malaysia determined a Southeast Middle East Regional Center for Counterterrorism (SEARCCT), which now runs a full inform of multilateral training courses, many conducted with U.S. support.
Early round-ups in 2001 as well as 2002 of scores of Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) suspects crippled which organization's activities in Malaysia. Over 70 suspected terrorists sojourn in custody underneath a Internal Security Act (ISA), a "preventive" measure which has additionally been used to jail domestic opponents of a supervision in a past.
To a knowledge, prosecutions as well as trials of a militant suspects have been not planned. Drawing upon their experience in defeating a communist insurgency, a Malaysians take a "rehabilitative" proceed for a small terrorists, gripping them underneath military supervision in "restricted residence." Several heading t! otal (su ch as JI financier Wan Min) have been expelled from ISA apprehension though warning.
We sojourn endangered which notice of expelled militant suspects might be inadequate as well as their "rehabilitation" might be incomplete or insincere. JI, whilst weakened, still has a capability to strike here, as well as a Malaysians need to sojourn vigilant.
8. (C) While a Malaysian care firmly opposes militant organizations during home, it is deeply disturbed with any organisation of Islam with terrorism, as well as frequently lectures us upon a need to abstain from conditions such as "Islamic terrorists" or "jihadists."
Reflecting a extended await for a Palestinian cause in in in between a majority here, a Malaysian supervision has no family with Israel as well as mostly argues for a need to address a "root causes" of terrorism in a Middle East.
In February, negotiators from a United States succeeded in reaching an agreement here upon a content for a shared Mutual Legal Assistance Treaty (MLAT). We have been anticipating a covenant will be ready for signature in time for a Secretary of State's Jul visit. The covenant will be a great tool in fighting terrorism as well as alternative forms of transnational crime.
Maritime Security
9. (C) In Jul 2005, a insurer Lloyd's of London directed towards a Strait of Malacca (SOM) as a "war-risk zone," raising premiums for shippers transiting these waters. This stirred a flurry of open cooperation in in in between a coastline states -- Malaysia, Singapore as well as Indonesia, plus neighboring Thailand -- together with conferences of unfamiliar ministers as well as troops chiefs.
On September 13, 2005, a 3 coastline countries launched an "Eyes in a Sky" (EiS) module to conduct ubiquitous aerial notice of a Strait. EiS currently comprises apart flights by Malaysia as well as Singapore (Indonesia has "temporarily" dropped out for operational genius reasons), with crews which use binoculars to consult shipping traff! ic as we ll as have non-secure air wave transmissions to seaside as well as boat facilities of a 3 coastline states.
Malaysia has additionally committed a single Beechcraft B-200 with infrared capability, to enable a small night surveillance. Talks upon substantiating an EiS customary operating procession continue, with a view towards reactivating Indonesian appearance as well as bringing Thailand into a program.
10. (C) EiS represents an important mystic step brazen for a coastline states' cooperation upon SOM security, though could be difficult to sustain though ubiquitous support. DPM Najib has told a media upon several occasions which Malaysia would acquire ubiquitous involvement in Eyes in a Sky.
Our working-level contacts sojourn vague, however, upon what sort of American good competence be supposed in this sovereignty-conscious region. Malaysia will horde a public this summer sponsored by a International Maritime Organization (IMO) in which a coastline states have been to brand as well as prioritize their needs for good in enhancing SOM security. On February 15-17, a USG hosted a public of key SOM user states during Coast Guard Island, Alameda, California, to plead a probable range as well as range of such assistance.
11. (C) Meanwhile, a Sulu Sea stays an under-monitored colonnade for militant elements in transit in in in in between Indonesia as well as Mindanao. Terror groups have additionally carried out a series of kidnappings for ransom in a area. While a segment has small worth for ubiquitous shipping compared to a Malacca Strait, it is tremendously important to a travel as well as fundraising operations of groups similar to JI as well as Abu Sayyaf. Together with Embassies Jakarta as well as Manila, you have focused upon this segment as a specific theater for building genius as well as cooperation in in in in between a governments of Malaysia, Indonesia as well as a Philippines. Significant brand brand brand new resources, which you have been in a process of identifyi! ng as we ll as prioritizing, will be compulsory to have these efforts successful.
New Coast Guard
12. (C) Malaysia's brand brand brand new seashore safeguard began singular operations upon Nov 30, 2005. The government's goal is to revoke overlap as well as territory battles in in in between a 11 Malaysian agencies tasked with patrolling a country's seas as well as waterways. The seashore guard, strictly named a Malaysian Maritime Enforcement Agency (MMEA), will possess 72 vessels transferred from a navy, sea police, sea department, as well as fisheries department, as well as has recruited about 1,000 crew from these as well as alternative existent agencies. The army vessels will send with their crews intact. MMEA hopes to fill a 4,000 approved positions inside of a year.
Mindanao Peace Talks, JI Presence
13. (C) Malaysia has facilitated assent talks in in in in between a Philippine supervision as well as a Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), as well as a negotiations have had a small success with a sticky emanate of "ancestral domain." The talks have been hosted by a Malaysian External Intelligence Organization, which in a past stealthily upheld separatist activities in Mindanao. JI appearance during MILF training camps stays a concern, yet a MILF has publicly disavowed any tie to JI. We go upon to press a Malaysians to have transparent to a MILF which it contingency sever a connections to JI as well as Abu Sayyaf.
Southern Thailand Strains Relations
14. (C) Separatist violence in southern Thailand has killed over 1,000 people given January 2004, as well as attacks go upon roughly daily. The Malaysian supervision has repeatedly denied Thai accusations which it supports a separatist groups, yet a people upon both sides of a porous limit share Malay ethnicity as well as a Muslim religion. Families as well as business interests hover a limit as well.
In Aug 2005 Malaysia offering proxy shelter to 131 Thai citize! ns who p ronounced they were journey their government's crackdown in a south. The issue, which has additionally involved a UN refugee agency, rubbed tender nerves in Kuala Lumpur as well as Bangkok, as supervision officials deserted a common neighborly ASEAN tongue for pointy written attacks upon each other. The tongue toned down somewhat after a Malaysians returned a single of a 131 asylum seekers, who was wanted upon criminal charges in Thailand.
Slow Progress upon Non-proliferation as well as PSI ...
15. (C) In 2003, a in isolation Malaysian organisation (partly owned by PM Abdullah's son) was found to have done as well as shipped arch centrifuge parts to Libya. The organisation pleaded ignorance, though a box underscored a need for Malaysia to adopt in effect trade controls. The supervision is relocating forward with plans to adopt such controls, together with a conclusion of an Additional Protocol (AP) with a International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) upon Nov 22, 2005. The AP provides a receptive to advice process framework for a doing of nuclear-related trade controls.
16. (C) We go upon to titillate Malaysia to experience in Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI) meetings as well as exercises. Malaysia sent dual observers in Aug 2005 to a PSI practice in Singapore, as well as 3 observers in Apr 2006 to a PSI practice in Australia. The supervision has pronounced it supports PSI "in principle," as well as which it would take part in PSI operations upon a case-by-case basis. We have been told which a supervision is considering an publicity of a PSI Statement of Interdiction Principles, which would concede full appearance in PSI events. However, elements inside of a unfamiliar method sojourn adamantly opposed, noticing which a PSI is targeted against "friends" of Malaysia, similar to Iran, Pakistan as well as China.
17. (C) As a chair of a Non-Aligned Movement (NAM), Malaysia has been too understanding of Iranian claims which a arch module is a peaceful one. ! More re cently, a GOM has moved somewhat divided from behavior which bordered upon "coaching" a Iranians. The EU-3 done substantial efforts to get Malaysia to exert a confining change upon Iran.
While it appears a Malaysians have privately counseled Iran to practice restraint, it does not appear these words had most change upon a Iranians. Malaysia failed to condemn Ahmadinejad's threat to "wipe Israel off a map" as well as gave President Ahmedinejad a red carpet acquire in Kuala Lumpur as a IAEA was referring his steady violations to a United Nations Security Council.
... But No Progress upon Article 98
18. (C) Malaysia has steadfastly rebuffed a efforts to interpretation an Article 98 agreement, citing vague "policy reasons." Though Malaysia is "studying" a Rome Treaty which created a International Criminal Court (ICC), you hold they have been unlikely to pointer a covenant since of their own concerns over sovereignty. The Malaysians have told us which given they have been not celebration to a Rome Treaty, they see small reason to interpretation an Article 98 agreement with us.
LAFLEUR
Read here for more
RUNNING SCARED IN MALAYSIA...
by
John Malott
(Mr. Malott was a United States ambassador to Malaysia from 1995-98)
The Malaysian supervision has pulled out all a stops to forestall an anti! thesis c onvene this weekend.
This week, army units conducted crowd carry out exercises with banners which said, "Disperse or you will shoot!" The military set up roadblocks as well as arrested Malaysians simply for wearing yellow T-shirts, a signature color of Bersih, a bloc of 62 nongovernmental organizations which demands changes in Malaysia's electoral system.
To date, a military have arrested over 250 supporters of Bersih, claiming which they have been "waging fight against a king."
Then something rare happened. Malaysia's King Tuanku Mizan Zainal Abidin, allegedly a target of Bersih's campaign, intervened. He called upon both Prime Minister Najib Razak as well as Bersih to finalise their differences in a suggestion of harmony as well as cooperation, for a great of a nation.
There was a collective whine of service in Malaysia.
The personality of Bersih, Ambiga Sreenevasan, an profession as well as former president of a Malaysian Bar Council, met with a aristocrat as well as voiced which a "Walk for Democracy," as it was called, was cancelled. She pronounced which she was ready to meet with a supervision to plead Bersih's concerns about electoral fairness.
Prime Minister Najib then offering an olive branch, saying, "We have been willing to provide a track for them to convene in from mor! ning unt il night," an offer which Ms. Ambiga as well as Bersih rught divided accepted.
Then Mr. Najib backed off. His supervision says which since Bersih is still illegal, it cannot request for a permit. It additionally has banned Bersih's care from entering Kuala Lumpur upon a day of a rally.
On Thursday, he assimilated a gathering of armed forces artists who pronounced which their 50,000 members will "wage war" against Bersih. Donning their militant uniform, Mr. Najib said, "If there have been evil enemies who want to conflict a republic from within, you, my brothers, will climb to fight them."
Mr. Najib has undermined a authority of a king, who gave Bersih a! s well a s a concerns faith by public with a care as well as job for a negotiated solution. The domestic incident in Malaysia is a fast-moving target, as well as each day brings brand brand brand new developments. Ms. Ambiga as well as Bersih now contend which since of Mr. Najib's actions, they will go forward with their assembly, no matter
Nobody knows what will happen tomorrow. Bersih's categorical emanate is not leisure of public though a integrity of Malaysia's approved process. Bersih's backers ask how any a single can be against to giveaway as well as satisfactory elections.
It's an easy subject to answer. The United Malays National Organization, of which Mr. Najib is president, is a longest continuing statute celebration in a world, as well as it is using scared.
In a final ubiquitous choosing in 2008, Malaysia's antithesis took 47% of a renouned vote. That year Parti Keadilan Rakyat, a celebration of Mr. Najib's nemesis Anwar Ibrahim, went from a single seat to 31. The investiture parties in Malaysia's neighboring states have been additionally in retreat. The antithesis scored a major victory in Thailand final weekend, as well as in Singapore antithesis candidates done startling gains. No wonder Mr. Najib as well as organisation have been worried.
Many observers of Malaysian politics hold which electoral remodel will lead to a statute party's defeat, as well as which is why UMNO is fearful of Bersih. In a final choosing in 2008, a celebration perceived usually o! ne-third of a nation's votes. UMNO manners usually since of a bloc with alternative domestic parties, which it increasingly marginalizes, which represent a Chinese as well as Indian minorities.
Mr. Najib as well as his allies contend which a opposition's gains in 2008 prove which Malaysia's elections have been giveaway as well as fair. Impartial observers disagree. Academic studies have enumerated how a Election Commission gerrymanders electoral districts to good a statute party.
The U.S. Department of ! State's tellurian rights inform bluntly states which antithesis parties have been incompetent to contest upon equal conditions with a ruling bloc since of restrictions upon campaigning as well as leisure of public as well as association.
"News of a opposition," a U.S. says, is "tightly limited as well as reported in a biased fashion."
In a new state elections in Sarawak, a supervision voiced $390 million in internal projects during a run-up to a polls. Prime Minister Najib was held upon video tape telling a single village gathering which a supervision would give them 5 million ringgit ($1.5 million) for a internal plan upon Monday, though usually if they inaugurated his claimant upon Sunday.
Who would win elections in Malaysia which indeed have been giveaway as well as fair?
The U.S. State Department reports which notwithstanding a many choosing irregularities during a 2008 elections, "most observers concluded they did not substantially alter a results."
But unless a electoral reforms which Bersih is job for have been made, you will never know.
Despite a government's intimidation, thousands of Malaysian citizens of all races as well as religions have been expected to practice their inherent right to assemble as well as call for giveaway as well as satisfactory elections.
Tomorrow's criticism represents a brave step in what not usually Malaysians though additionally a ubiquitous village should goal will begin a country's passing from one to another to full democracy.
Mr. Najib should display his own bravery as well as safeguard which a peaceful convene which seeks a elemental rig! hts of d emocratic peoples everywhere does not turn into a bloody confrontation.
RELATED ARTICLES
- Faced with mounting vigour which a convene will be hold this weekend, a Public Services Department (PSD) has issued a round exclusive civil servants from participating in an bootleg public or any transformation which might harm a confide! nce of a nation.
The letter antiquated June 30 as well as sealed by a PSD director-general, Abu Bakar Abdullah, did not name which rally.Three have been programmed for this weekend, organised by a Coalition for Clean as well as Fair Elections (Bersih 2.0), Perkasa as well as Umno Youth.Read here for more - Khairy Jamaluddin indicted a city military currently of reigniting tensions over a Bersih convene by getting a court sequence exclusive him as well as 90 others from entering a city upon Saturday.
The Umno Youth arch arrived home from a proffer mission to Gaza this dusk to find himself outlawed from a city he lives in.Instead of operative upon a resolution they have taken a resolution away, a Rembau MP pronounced of a court sequence which denies Bersihs hopes of land a convene in Stadium Merdeka.
The incident is in limbo. Nobody knows what is next, he said, adding which a Umno Youth care would meet tomorrow morning to plead a options.Earlier today, Khairy had posted upon micro-blogging site Twitter which he has usually landed behind in KL after trying to break Israeli blockade of Gaza usually to find which Ive been blockaded from KL. Excuse me if we contend WTF? Read here for more - The military have placed a limitation sequence upon 91 individuals, together with organisers of a Bersih 2.0, Perkasa as well as Umno Youth's Patriot rallies. The sequence is to stop any of a 91 from being present during several spots in Kuala Lumpur upon Jul 9.
"This equates to which any a single (on a list) held present! during thes e areas will be arrested upon sight," pronounced a city deputy military arch Amar Singh.
Full list of 91 individuals
Perkasa
Ibrahim Ali
Rahman bin Abu Bakar
Syed Hassan ! Syed Ali
Irawah Fahmi Ideris
Roslan Kassim
Sharifuddin Abd Hamid
Dr Zubir Harun
Ameir Hassan
Ahmad Saad
Ahmad Zaini Ismail
Muhammad Zaid Md Arip
Abdullah Mansor
Zaira Jaafar
Norkhaila Jamaludin
Pemuda Umno
Khairy Jamaluddin Abu Bakar
Megat Firdouz Megat Junid
Reezal Merican Naina Merican
Megat Zulkarnaian Omardin
Rizalman Mokhtar
Tengku Azman Tengku Zainol Abidin
Lokman Noor Adam
Abdul Azeez Rahim
Ungku Saleh Ungku Jamal
Arman Azha Abu Hanifa
Tun Faisal Ismail Aziz
Bersih
Ambiga Sreenevasan
Mohamad Sabu
Hishamuddin Md Rais
Khairul Anwar Ahmad Zainuddin
Maria Chin Abdullah
Chua Tian Chang
Kamarulzaman Mohamad
Dr Mohd Hatta Md Ramli
Syed Shahir Syed Mohamud
Syed Ibrahim Syed Noh
Teresa Kok
Badrul Hisha Shaharin
Shamsul Iskandar Mohd Akin
Arutchelvam Subramaniam
Wong Chin Huat
Ong Boon Keong
Enalini Elumalai
Haris Fathillah Sathiasingam Mohd Ibrahim
Khalid Yunus
Zulkifli Noordin
Dr Zubir Harun
Abd Hadi Awang
Anwar Ibrahim
Lim Kit Siang
Nik Abdul Aziz Nik! Mat
Nurul Izzah Anwar
Kohila Yanasekaran
Zaid Kamaruddin
Khoo Teng Swee
Fadiah Nadwa Fikri
Yap Swee Seng
Salahuddin Ayub
Mahfuz Omar
Nas arudin Hasan
Mazlan Aliman
Dr Syed Azman Syed Nawawi
Dr Dzulkifli Ahmad
Dr Mujahid Yusof
Khalid Abd Samad
Mohammad Nizar Jamaluddin
Azman Shapawi Abd Rani
Suhaizan Kaiat
Nor Azli Musa
Mohd Firdaus Jaafar
Loke Siew Fook
Lau Wen San
Mohd Azmin Ali
Mat Shuhaimi Shafie
Satipul Bahari Amamt
Wan Hassan Mohd Ramli
Mohamad Izzudin Hilmi Mohd Zaini
Mohd Shazni Munir Mohd Ithnin
Muhammad Hilman Idham
Mohd Shukri Che Ab Razab
Mohd Syukri Kamaruddin
Ahmad Syazwan Muhammad Hasan
Choo Chon Kai
Sarasvathy Muthu
Soh Sook Hwa
Nurul Izham Nurul Anuar
Abd Rahim Osman
Mohd Sibri Ismail
Mohd Lukam Muda
Prof Kamaruddin Kachar
Mohd Noor Nordin Abdullah
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